I often get the same questions from people thinking of joining the Index. “Can you still profit without holding 1,000 Neymar’s bought in 2017?”
“Doesn’t most profit come from the bonuses?” “I don’t have enough time for it!” This article is my answer.
I started fresh on day 1 of the new football season with these rules:
- No bonus cash*.
- No long term holds from last season.
- No spending 24/7 checking news or watching every game.
Just 1 man. £1k. And one helluva lot of stats.
Notes for New Readers
I’ll be trying to show not just the trades but my thought process and reasons behind decisions I make. The specific players I pick are less important.
You can check out the original post where I introduce my overall strategy and explain the opening selections.
As I obviously have an existing portfolio, I will not make these exact trades but they will be tracked realistically.
I will also own every player on this list for real so the selections will get my full attention. Generally, I select players I have talked about positively on the site.
I always say though, don’t blindly follow any picks you see from others including mine. Do your own research and if you see what I see, great, but you have to know why you have bought the player and be happy with it.
*Since the Challenge started the Index have dropped 2 further bonuses. I haven’t directly used them here, but they do affect the market and there’s not much I can do about that!
The 1K Challenge Portfolio
- Portfolio Value: £1,503.30
- In the bank: £6.83
- Value Increase from £1k: 51.01%
- Value Change from Week 10: +4.2%
This is something of a milestone for the challenge because we have just passed 50% overall profit since day one of the new season (without direct use of bonuses).
This is decent and importantly I have been able to stick to the challenge rules. These are all fresh trades from the new season, no long term holds required. And it’s been really time efficient, with a low number of trades and minimal splashing about.
It shows you can make good money on the Index without 24/7 news monitoring or flipping shenanigans which require a lot constant attention. There is still a long way to go in the season so let’s try to make this at least 100% before the end.
In the last couple of weeks we have made just a small 4.2% gain with drops for some balanced by gains elsewhere. This isn’t spectacular, but I am content with that because it has been a difficult few weeks. If you can keep making progress in the rough times, you are doing alright.
There has definitely been a bit of confusion and self doubt on the market, as traders didn’t quite know where to put their money as I discussed on today’s Daily post. As you will see below, I haven’t flipped out and over reacted though and instead made just a couple of adjustments. There are notable drops for Aguero and Savic. Neither have returned dividends for a while, and both have larger price tags, so this is to be expected.
I’m fine with them though, Aguero is quality and not going anywhere. Savic is having a lukewarm season but he is class and the transfer rumours are starting to resurface, including to EPL clubs.
Then we have had a few minor dips for lower priced players like Traoré and Kamano. Traoré has had some issues, as he was left out of the side for a few games. But he was back for the last one and was back on the score sheet, so I remain confident. (In my real portfolio I actually bought more Traoré on the dip, but didn’t have the spare cash to do that in the Challenge).
Thorgan Hazard is the stand out performer, with another huge value rise. He is looking the real deal now and is my clear find of the season having bagged him at just £1.91 (and cheaper in my own portfolio!) There were dividend wins for Hazard and Thauvin, both of whom rose in value. This is yet another example should we need one that ultimately, when all the noise fades away, price follows dividend wins.
Last time out I predicted a quiet period of trading, since I was happy with my choices. That has been true, but with two adjustments.
Sells and Holds
Out goes Luis Alberto. He’s a talent but he just hasn’t been getting the minutes and late November saw talk of an exit and move to Sevilla. I’m not happy with that because I bought him thinking that his performances would get him a regular spot at Lazio. At 26 years old, I’m less forgiving of him starting on the bench than I would be for a younger player.
We take a loss here, having bought at £3.05 and sold at £2.71. But if I am not happy with a trade and the reasons I bought are fading, it’s time to come out and take your loss on the chin. Nobody wins ’em all.
On the plus side, that freed up a bit of money on the 23 November to pick up 25 shares in Houssem Aouar who has been putting in fine displays for Lyon. In early season I was not convinced, pegging him as a potential high baseline nearly man without enough goals to make it count. He has proved that wrong though with 5 goals in 24 appearances and good regular goal threat.
He is a real talent and the links to Barcelona, Liverpool and Manchester City do not hurt his cause.
Again, I am not expecting to do much in the next week or two unless there is an event to react to. The portfolio is looking solid to me.
For those players whose value depends on transfer rumours, we are heading to the January transfer window now so we will have to pay extra attention to breaking news for the next month at least.