There was a good thought on Twitter last night from @FiGuide_ that I felt worth highlighting.

It’s about Otamendi, but it’s just one example of how sensitive the performance dividend prospects of players can be. It applies to media too, but perhaps to a lesser extent.

Otamendi was one of the performance kings of last season, but is not doing much for us this term, often due to rotation. He has declined by nearly 50% in value as a result, because in the end, price follows dividends and will increasingly do so once the hype chasing phase of a young market settles down a bit.

There will always be speculation on some level. But as the market matures, prices will broadly track dividend returns and there is no two ways about it.

A change in tactics, playing position or team instructions. A change of club. Even a sustained dip in form.

All of these things can turn a “good” Index player bad and a “bad” Index player good.

This is why it is so important to keep an open mind on players and continue to review what is really happening on the pitch. Following historic performance scores alone is not enough.

There are certain players that can be flagged as pretty much no hopers. If they have no prospects of ever joining a big club, or have a totally unsuitable playing position for example.

But amongst the elite and performance suitable players, there is a fine line between success and failure. And it can change very easily.

This is actually a good thing. It is what will keep the Index alive and viable in the future. It’s not going to be possible to just stack up the “good” performance and media players, forget them and just watch the money roll in.

This is something I track very closely and I review every match day and compare what is really happening to my existing view on the player. And it’s important not to be embarrassed or stubborn about changing your mind if the facts change.

Generally, you won’t see significant changes over just one game or even a few. You need multiple instances before you can call it a pattern.

But over the weeks and months, players can drift in and out of being in realistic contention for dividends and it is something we should all keep in mind.


Rocket Ships

Lucas Moura

Is this a timely example of the above? Possibly, at least temporarily.

If he recovers in time, he could be the man to attempt to fill Harry Kane’s boots, possibly even as a striker.

If he starts completing the full 90 minutes alone, that will be a significant boost to his performance scores right off the bat.

I would probably expect his involvement to stay at the same modest levels, perhaps even getting worse if he is asked to focus on scoring rather than build up play.

However, he has shown an eye for goal and if he starts knocking in a couple in a game he could challenge.

Lots of if’s and but’s in that assessment but I think he has a decent chance particularly with such a kind run of fixtures coming up for Spurs.


Sinking Ships

Denis Suarez

This is a good example of the difficulties of a trade once the transfer speculation is in full swing.

This was a great trade when I first picked him up and highlighted him on the site in the Daily at £1. I then followed up and bought him for my new trader challenge at £1.16.

More recently on the Daily, I said I had sold at around the £2.50 mark. He went on to rise to £3 but has now fallen to £2.36.

This is an example of how I generally sell on the upswing rather than waiting for the news to break. You can sometimes miss that bit extra, but you lock in your profit and can move that money on to other things.

At the point the price was at £2.50 and I sold, it really could have gone either way. So there is no harm in locking in that profit and we can’t feel bad about not selling at £3.

That money went into another target who has also risen, and that player did not carry as big a risk of a sudden drop due to some breaking news.

It looks like this deal will get over the line now. And I do think he could be performance suitable, so I will have my eye on him and if he looks like breaking into the side in an appropriate role, I may return to him.

If the price really tanks down to £2 I may buy anyway on the basis that he may rise with his first start and I can see how he does before deciding to keep or sell.


Hot Gossip

James Rodriguez

This is a peculiar but potentially huge transfer. Rumour is that Arsenal can buy out Rodriguez’s loan deal for £3 million.

It sounds like a potentially complicated arrangement but as an owner I will take any move that brings him to the EPL.

In the right team with consistent minutes I rate him as one of the best performance players around, very few match his involvement and threat.

Is it likely? It seems complicated and far fetched. But if it did happen, it’s a big move.

Christian Eriksen

It is looking increasingly likely Eriksen’s days at Spurs are numbered. Real Madrid have been circling for a long time.

It’s a strange transfer because although I think his dividend prospects improve at Madrid he may actually fall in value (him being in the EPL is not that important because he is not much of a media attraction).

Logically, his value should increase if the transfer happened. It might get a transfer speculation boost if it started getting media points. But traders are creatures of habit and the unwritten rule is that you sell when a player leaves the EPL.

I think it will be an unpredictable trade that many people won’t know what to do with.


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FIT

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