For many traders who have joined us in January this may well be the first treble match day they have seen!
If this is you, welcome! Enjoy these days, they are a lot of fun. And in my view finding a relatively unknown player and watching them break out in a big game is far more satisfying than your standard punt at the bookies.
There is a lot going on however if you are new to this! So today I am going to skip the usual player focused Daily format.
Instead, I’ll talk about what to expect from the treble day and share three tips on how best to navigate it for the benefit of all the newer traders joining us.
Watch the Football, not just the performance scores!
During the games today, you will not find me sitting there watching the performance scores ticking up thinking “this guy has scored X after 15 minutes he is amazing/terrible”. Instead, I will be watching what is actually happening on the pitch and in the real match statistics.
Are they in the right position to threaten the goal? Are they seeing enough of the ball? Are they getting shots away? Are they involved in a lot of passes? Does he seem to have the right role in the side? Is his team trying to be dominant or are they on the defensive?
These are some of the things that matter to the long term success of the player, the score he ends up with today doesn’t tell us a great deal in a lot of cases.
A striker might be scoring -30 but if he is getting enough shots to make you think he could explode and score 2 or 3 in a game, that’s fine. A midfielder can have the passing to rack up a 150 score, but if he is never going to get a goal it probably doesn’t matter.
Real match data is a far better indicator of success than performance scores. Performance scores are very sensitive to tactical changes.
The scoring system also comes with a big old slice of luck in it. Generally, the better players will get to the top, but then who gets those extra points to push them to the win can often be a lottery. If your player scored but it didn’t happen to be the match winner you may miss out, for example.
So watch what is really happening and make your own judgements, don’t get too fixated on the live performance scores.
Winning is Hard!
A trade on the Football Index is not like a normal bet. It’s much more long term and it needs a different mindset.
You are betting on the long term success of a player. If they win today, that’s great, but you do not *need* them to win straight away.
That’s just as well because (whisper it) your favourite player is probably not going to win the performance or media dividends today.
With 24 eligible fixtures by my count, that makes 528 players competing for just 4 possible prizes (plus star player) and that isn’t even including any substitutes.
Even a very good performance player may only put themselves into the mix to challenge for a dividend 7-10 times in an entire season. And it is always possible that an absolute carthorse of a player has the game of his life and scores a hat trick from nowhere.
Why am I telling you this? Because it is important to go in with realistic expectations. You don’t want to be panic selling a good player just because this isn’t their day and they don’t win.
Instead, as per the factors I discussed in Tip 1, judge the player on what is really happening and not on whether they win today or not. A good performance may be enough to catch the eye of the market and see the player rise if it looks like translating into future dividend wins.
Of course, with In Play dividends, you may see an instant reward if you have bought the players within the last 30 days. These wins come much easier!
Once a goal is in that is that, and they can’t be taken away just because another player scored a better one. However, the In Play dividends are relatively small and they should be considered a nice bonus on top of an existing trade, you cannot reliably make money by trading specifically for In Play dividends due to the spread and commission involved.
Watch the Market
On big match days, particularly on day’s like today since it is the first in a while and there is a lot of hype, the market can do some crazy things.
Despite all I said above, a lot of people will still be piling into bad players just because they scored a goal, or selling good players just because they didn’t.
On a day like today, I think we will see a lot of this behaviour and much of it is designed specifically to trick new or naive traders, so be aware of it. Avoid piling into players you don’t know much about just because they scored and they are now flying in value.
Particularly if experienced traders know that their good performance is a fluke, it is likely that player will get dumped just as soon as the hysteria wears off leaving some people holding some very heavy bags.
There are far too many market shenanigans to cover but my advice for a new trader is to avoid over tinkering based on the swings of the day. Many people enjoy short trading but until you are confident enough to know what is happening, it is really easy to fall into a trap.
Instead, use it as a learning opportunity and watch how the market reacts. Once you have a few big match days under your belt, you’ll be better prepared to dive in if you want to.
For those about to see their first treble day, enjoy! It’s a ton of fun but just remember the long term nature of the platform: don’t feel like you have to get swept along with the madness that I expect to happen today!
Trust your instincts. Play your own game. And focus on what is really happening on the pitch, not just the performance scores.
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