We can all expect an exciting and potentially up and down 10 days or so as we come towards the end of the transfer window.

I love the transfer windows and particularly the build up to them. But half of me does breathe a sigh of relief when they are over and I can get back to focusing on performance scoring!

If you are holding a player with a live transfer rumour, you can expect the price to bounce up and down. It’s always at the mercy of just one breaking news story and sometimes it goes your way and sometimes not.

If you aren’t in a position to monitor them all day, you may want to reduce your exposure to this kind of thing. People hate to sell “early” and then see the price rise but you should never be shy of banking a profit.

After all, you don’t have to do nothing with that money. You can often find something else that also has a decent prospect of a rise that can’t be scuppered by one sudden news flash.


Rocket Ships

Anthony Martial

It looks like Martial will sign a new deal at Manchester United.

This is quite interesting as traditionally a players price rises when a big player does not sign a new contract.

This speaks of trader optimism about Manchester United and the player himself.

Gone are the days of the curse of Old Trafford. (I miss being able to make my joke about that being where performance scores went to die).

With United players strong for media dividends historically, any player that can reliably earn performance dividends as well could start justifying a hefty price tag.

Long time readers will know I have always rated Martial, even when he was struggling for pitch time and languishing at £3. I felt if anyone could break the curse, it could be him. So how is he doing now he does have game time?

Well, he’s doing ok if not great in recent games. He is occupying the right areas of the pitch and getting into the box a reasonable amount. He’s got enough involvement, too.

We do need him to have more efforts on goal per game though, and he needs to start converting those chances if he is going to start to threaten to win performance dividends.

One to keep an eye on in the coming games. At this price, I will want to see more goal threat if I am to remain a holder.

Rabbi Matondo

Sigh. I think this rise will make even the biggest youth trend fanatic blush.

We’ve got nothing on Matondo to go on, other than a potentially favourable playing position. He’s also Welsh, and never going to attract the hype that an English player will.

If you could convince a Bundesliga club to make a bid for the Manchester City kit man and get FI to put him on the Index, social media would ring to the tune of “he’s the next Sancho!”.

Madness. Avoid unless you are deliberately trying to flip the transfer.


Sinking Ships

Joao Felix

A drop for Felix this morning although this is likely to be started by a trading group or individual since there is no negative news.

In fact, the transfer rumours to Liverpool and Manchester United are continuing to run.

It would be perfectly sensible to cash out of a trade like this at this point if you had made a decent profit.

Equally, it’s fine to hold, too. If the transfer does firm up you have a chance of a big win.

The most important point is this. Because we are dealing with a quality player who has shown some potential as a performance suitable player (and even star quality for media purposes, possibly), it makes life easy for ourselves.

If we choose to cash out today, we may miss out on a big spike, but we may avoid a dip. But we will have made a decent profit if we got in early enough.

If we hold, we may get a big rise, or we may get a dip. But any dip is likely to be temporary and it’s very likely just a matter of time before the rumours spark up again, even if you have to wait until the Summer approaches.

So it’s hard to make a bad decision here.

Contrast that to players who have no substance behind them and no real competitive minutes under their belt. With those, you are under a lot of pressure to get out at the right time because you do not want to be left holding that parcel when the music stops.


Hot Gossip

James Rodriguez

This Arsenal loan rumour is doing the rounds again. It’s worth highlighting because it would be huge.

It sounds like a complicated transfer arrangement since he on loan already. But with him sidelined by the new coach, it’s not impossible.

Is Arsenal the best club holders could hope for? Not really, but it’s not bad either. Any move to the EPL is going to be big news.

I rate him as potentially one of the best performance players on the Index, not many have his mix of involvement and goal threat. And he is capable of the spectacular and should get his share of media dividends in the EPL, too. He just needs a platform.

I still think this feels an unlikely move, but worth monitoring.


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FIT

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