We are back for another big two days of fixtures and whilst we may not quite see the hysteria of last weekend, I still think it’s going to be an action packed couple of days.

Yesterday I took a look at the market and just saw the same things and same patterns that had been discussed all week. I opted not to write a Daily because I only like to write when I feel I have something new to share!

Even today, there is still a lot of buying players for no other reason than they have been rising going on.

This works just as long as there are enough people who think it is a good idea. It’s instinctively reassuring to buy a rising player because you feel like you are in good company. But this inevitably leads you into paying too much for players and you end up with a very mixed bag portfolio of expensive but often dodgy assets.

The oddest thing about this strategy is that often it isn’t even where the biggest profits are. They may get the attention on social media but it is actually away from all this froth where the biggest profits can be made, often at lower risk.

Anyway. Let’s focus on another couple of huge match days! There are a lot of players in action so for all the new traders joining us, remember the match day trading tips from last week.

The tip I will stress again is not to get fixated on the performance scores ticking up. They are one indicator but watching games and looking at the real match statistics is the only way you will get a full picture.


Rocket Ships

Nicolas Pepe

A welcome reminder that quality players often shine through. He has been threatening for a while and his goal scoring consistency this term has been remarkable.

What is even better is his all round game which gives him better than average baselines for a forward. This means when he scores a match winner that can be just enough to challenge. However, he probably will need 2 goals to win still.

This is not so different from many good forwards however Pepe is managing to do this at Lille, who are not a particularly dominant side.

When he signs for a bigger club, and it is when, we can reasonably expect his baselines to increase.

A superb hold in my view and one I have been picking out on the site since early season at the £2 mark. I went big on him back then. Would I buy now?

I would say yes because the likelihood of a Summer transfer is high, and the rumours are all in the EPL direction to a big team. His dividend returns in themselves are likely to support the price, and for those who use comparative value, he is far superior to many young players with bigger price tags.

(I happen to be dead against this way of judging value personally, but that does not mean I ignore the fact others are willing to over pay on that basis when judging a trade).

Son Heung-min

No doubt Son’s early exit from the Asian Cup is a welcome relief to a Tottenham side devoid of both Kane and Alli until March.

For a heavily rotated player that often struggles to complete 90 minutes, this is going to help a lot. If you aren’t completing the full 90 regularly you aren’t going to be winning many dividends and it’s as simple as that.

Even if he did start every game, he would not be a particularly high baseline player. He will probably do better if *not* played as the main striker.

Either way though, we are likely to be needing 2 goals for him to win. That is possible, and he does have a record of being prolific. He also may get more chances thrown his way in the absence of Kane.

I’m on the fence but at around £3.50 it wouldn’t be a bad punt, especially given the very kind run of games Spurs have next.


Sinking Ships

Wilfried Zaha

Transfer rumours for January are shot down by Hodgson, although surely after so many will he won’t he dramas he will finally move on this Summer?

I have always pegged Zaha as a player who could do very well if given a starting role in a dominant side.

He has all the right attributes for a good performance player but you are never going to show it regularly at a low possession side like Crystal Palace.

I think it is worth watching how far he drops because a patient trader may be glad they picked him up depending on what rumours surface in the Summer.


Hot Gossip

Pablo Fornals

Fornals is likely to be a good performance player in hiding at Villareal. If the link to Arsenal or Napoli comes off this will be well worth looking at.

There are also traps to look out for in clubs like West Ham which we would not want. Kind price, though.


If you find this post useful please like the post on Twitter or share using the below buttons. You can also follow me on Twitter at @_FI_trader for additional daily thoughts and tips.

FIT

error: Alert: Copying is disabled to protect members content :)