Things seem to be slowing down a bit and perhaps this is to be expected given the huge bull run in the first three weeks of January.

Sometimes things just need to take a bit of a breather and yes, some prices that overheat do fall back a bit. If you are holding good players, you don’t generally need to sweat this too hard.

If you are holding rubbish that was bought just because it was rising, you do need to sweat on it.

I tend not to worry about what is happening on the day or whether it is a “red day” or a “green day”. I’m not working for a wage here. The only balance that matters is the one far in the future when I eventually start cashing out some profits.

I estimate the value of a player, assess their prospects and then look ahead a few weeks or months and worry about that instead.


Rocket Ships

Julian Draxler

As one player takes a hit (see below) there is always an opportunity that opens up elsewhere.

I think Draxler is a strong player in his own right. He’s getting some decent scoring opportunities of late and really I think he should be putting away a few more chances than he does. Either he is unlucky or he has a problem with finishing. I suspect the former.

With a match winning goal, he should be up there competing for dividends and that puts him in range of some wins.

I like him. And he is very reasonably priced.

Edison Cavani

Perhaps another beneficiary of Neymar’s misfortune. (I could have discussed Mbappé but he appears often on the site and everyone is probably sick of the price vs actual returns debate by now, regardless of your view).

Cavani is in a purple patch of his own right now and whilst he does need to score a lot to win performance dividends given his low overall contribution, he can do it. It’s a weak league and cricket scores are not uncommon.

That’s good for goals dividends too, given his budget price. You would think as well that with no Neymar to target, Cavani may be gifted even more chances.

Again, this trade looks good to me and I think people will increasingly realise the “jam today” benefits of a quality veteran player as the year goes on.


Sinking Ships

Neymar

Nothing can send social media into a frenzy like a big injury to a big player.

This is part of the game we play. One of the risks in having a lot of money tied up in one player is that they can get injured and that loss is going to hurt.

The much hated spread really helps holders out here because without that eye watering cost of an Instant Sell, the exodus would be significantly larger. It is only the spread that is stopping a lot of people hitting that Instant Sell button at the moment.

Spreads take a lot of flak but I think most of the time they are pretty reasonable and in moments like this people are secretly very glad for them. Without them, the market would be all over the place.

Something I think FI would look better without is the rush to social media to aggressively tell other people what to do. “You are an idiot to sell!” or an idiot to hold etc etc. It screams Ponzi scheme and it’s not a good look for FI.

People will do what they want, there is not necessarily a right answer on this. And nothing makes someone more likely to sell than someone begging them not to sell. Desperation is the death of desire as they say.

It does look like a bad injury and there is no sugaring the pill, if he is out for the season that’s just bad for holders. However, even in the worst case and it is next season before he sees action, it is a question of when not if the price recovers.

Neymar being Neymar with a prospect of transfer speculation, it will be May rather than August before even an injured Neymar becomes a focus of attention again.

If it were me holding (I don’t, and don’t hold any premiums for more than a couple of months generally) I would consider whether I had anything better to do with the money in the meantime, factoring in the losses I’d make on spread and commission.

At least with Neymar though, he is up there with the best dividend returners around and should be for a long time. It’s hard to make a really bad decision when holding a quality player.


Hot Gossip

Carlos Soler

Soler is an up and coming talent at a budget price, with links to big clubs including Tottenham, Manchester City and Barcelona.

He’s just 22 and whilst he hasn’t set the scoring system alight just yet, there is enough there to suggest he could with the right circumstances.

At £1.78 after a drop from £2.10 recently I think this looks decent, but I don’t expect a move this January and it may be better to wait.


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FIT

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