Not quite the midweek action many of us had in mind, with some soft scores and smaller club players stealing the dividends!

We go again tonight though and another 3 big hitting sides are in action. Most of the market seems to be focused on the transfer window as you might expect with it shutting tomorrow. And also, performances for some recently transferred players even if they weren’t playing an eligible game!

The big news in town though is the announcement of more details on the share split at tomorrow’s trader meet. I already have an updated guide out for those who want to understand more about what it means and what effect it will have.

I will be watching the announcement closely and will give my assessment on Twitter shortly afterwards so make sure you are following me there if you want an update (link top right of the page).

On the one hand, much of the expectations of the share split are already priced in. People have known about it for months and have been taking positions accordingly, often in the premium players.

However, depending on the terms there still could be a huge market reaction. Some are calling for a dividend increase alongside it. This is extremely unlikely.

The outcome is actually fairly unpredictable. I half worry that some players will get dumped with many clearly planning to flip the share split expectations. Equally, people could irrationally treat this as a bonus and pile into it.

Long term, I think it will be a good thing but it really makes very little difference to value in the short term. It’s primarily a psychological marketing trick.

Exciting times.


Risers

Krzysztof Piatek

It’s difficult to imagine a better start to life at AC Milan for Piatek. 2 goals in 27 minutes on his full debut. The market went wild.

He is a player I have tracked on this site for a long time and have seen him doing well. If his finishing is anything like it was at Genoa, then he should rack up the goals with more and better quality chances at Milan.

He isn’t a textbook performance player but he may score enough for that not to matter, and In Play dividends will help him out too.

His scoring streak at Genoa was so good you almost felt it had to end. He did go 5 without a goal in October/November but then was back on it with another 6 in the next month.

The market does respect consistency and if he scores again in the next couple of games I can see the price pushing £5 with ease. Tough match up next away at Roma but home to Cagliari on the 10th could be a juicy target.

Hakim Ziyech

Ziyech really could be a top drawer performance player with his involvement and threat and it is only his ineligible league that is holding him back from being a £5-6 player in my opinion.

So, it comes down to whether you believe the transfer rumour. Dortmund would be a solid move, although I had hoped for the EPL.

However, the rumour does seem to be surfacing a little late to get over the line before the deadline. And Ajax have repeatedly said that no more stars are leaving until the Summer.

I suspect therefore it is one we will need more patience with. But if it did happen it would be a big deal.


Fallers

Callum Hudson-Odoi

A small drop after a rise in the last 7 days for Hudson-Odoi. And it’s tricky to navigate.

It’s getting tense with Hudson-Odoi trying to force a move, and Sarri now saying he is being disrespectful and he should get on with his job.

That could go either way as Chelsea may give him more game time for the rest of the season to try to fend off a summer move. On the other hand, Sarri could lose patience and let him languish to show that throwing your toys out of the pram doesn’t get you anywhere.

I saw a BBC article yesterday putting Chelsea second from bottom of the “give youth a chance” league table, which confirms what we all knew already.

It’s hard to see any logical reason for this to go anywhere but down. Once the window closes the media gossip will dry up, and whether at Chelsea or Bayern, he is unlikely to be a significant factor until next season.


Hot Gossip

Luka Jovic

Jovic has been flying and it’s easy to see why, he remains one of the hottest young striker prospects in Europe. Real Madrid seem to agree and apparently see him as the long term successor to Benzema.

That seems to be more of a Summer thing so I would not get too excited now. But he is looking a solid long term hold.

Denis Suarez

Another from the £1k New Trader Challenge to do well. He is currently topping the media and price rise list. If he goes straight into the side I think he has a chance of doing well for us.

However, I would give a word of caution on the media flip. Many chase the day’s media dividend and generally, if you aren’t selling after the pump, you get exploited by those who are.


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FIT

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