It’s a huge day today with both share split excitement and transfer deadline day to keep us occupied.

Wild theories have been flying around on social media about what might happen with the share split, or alongside the share split. And perhaps a bit too much is being read into tweets from FI staff.

As I said to them yesterday on Twitter, they can be a human starting gun and maybe they don’t realise how much people hang on their words for any tiny hint!

Despite all the theories though, I expect a fairly straightforward announcement from the trader meet tonight with no surprises.

We are getting a share split, probably of the 4x variety but it could be up to 10x. Assuming that basic expectation is met, I don’t expect too much market movement, the adjustment for that will be mainly priced in already.

However, in the case of any curve balls like the gossip of an accompanying dividend increase (unlikely!), all bets are off. So even if we expect it to be a routine announcement, we still need to pay close attention at 8pm tonight on the FI Facebook page. Share split aside, even the Q+A can give great insights into the future direction and I will tweet any of my reactions to that later.

Speaking of announcements, I have one of my own. For the past few months I have been working hard behind the scenes to create a members section for the site with a ton of original content that I will keep up to date to reflect the changes in the market and on the pitch.

The existing Daily content will stay exactly as it is. Readers who want to become members will get extra access to over 100+ hours per month of my personal player scouting, performance suitability ratings (over 400+ players and counting!) as well as my analysis of the market and all of it’s risks and opportunities. All updated live throughout the week.

I am putting the finishing touches on it today as I watch transfer deadline day unfold, so stay tuned to Twitter and the site for more details tomorrow and at the weekend.


Risers

Joao Felix

Huge transfer rumours for Felix including Manchester United, Chelsea, and Bayern Munich.

I picked him up for my New Trader Challenge at just £1.97 but highlighted him on the site well before that as a very strong up and coming talent. He has more than doubled in value to £4.08 now.

This is one of the ways my focus on trawling real match data pays off because you just can’t find this sort of player by relying on historic performance data.

As ever, the hype with this sort of wonder kid gets out of control. But we do have decent numbers of minutes to judge him on and he has shown plenty to convince that he could be a strong performance player in future.

So should we expect him to be signing a contract today? Extremely unlikely! I think this will be a Summer thing and I would not be surprised to see a drop after today if some traders are disappointed.

However, his talent is such that in the absence of any curve balls, I think he will be heading into the Summer as a £5-6 player with ease.

Federico Chiesa

Chiesa is something of a sleeping giant. I think many are aware of his talent but because people focus a lot on performance scores, you can’t fail to notice that his scores are generally not great.

That doesn’t mean much though because good Index players can score badly depending on the circumstances, and playing outside of a big team is one of them.

I believe he is actually very performance suitable and when he gets a move to a bigger team (it is when) he should start showing it with a consistent run of games. Most big EPL clubs would snap him up but the rumour is he is more keen on a big move in Italy.

Because he is actually quite well known as a talent, people are also very quick to jump on him when he does something. This weeks hat-trick was something even though it didn’t count on the Football Index.


Fallers

Gonzalo Higuain

Well. That was underwhelming.

We can’t pin all of the blame for a terrible Chelsea performance on Higuain. But for holders, that was a blow.

He was barely involved in forward areas with only 1 touch in the box and not a single shot in the game.

Confidence in older players is precarious, so he really needed to start with a strong statement. Had he done so, the price would have flown the other way.

It still might. But he would need to make a big impact and look confident and dangerous in the next few games to recover from this.


Hot Gossip

Maxi Gomez

The West Ham rumours have been strong although the very latest is it may have fallen through.

It is still worth highlighting because I like Gomez and think he could turn into a solid player for us at a big club. West Ham are not that team though. You could however view it as a chance to showcase his talent in the EPL.

I however would be fine with waiting until the summer for a bigger club to come in for him.

Emile Smith-Rowe

It looks like a loan to Leipzig will happen for Smith-Rowe. Any young English kid going to the Bundesliga is going to get attention at the moment.

There aren’t a ton of minutes to judge him on but there are flashes of performance suitability in there, against Vorskla for example last time out. He had decent possession there and 2 shots and a goal.

There is an issue in that soft games like that where young players often get a run out are usually very flattering. They will not have it that easy usually. So I think a loan move for Smith-Rowe is great and he is well worth watching when playing some more competitive football.


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FIT

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