If you took some parts of social media seriously you’d believe there was a market crash going on right now.
Actually, the market is stable overall and the difference is that the market has not had a ton of new money pumped into it in recent days. If you are used to the recent boom period that feels bad. But it’s not, it’s entirely normal. What would be scary is a market that never seemed to pause to take a breath.
Sure, certain players are taking a beating. And, it does tend to be the ones who have risen sharply recently on the back of hype and over optimism. Again, this is a completely normal thing for a market.
Then comes the moaning or complaining that this is bad luck or the result of “stupid traders”. But I am a believer in personal responsibility in trading and I think you reap what you sow.
It is a trader’s own fault if they are hanging on too long to over priced positions and taking losses. And if you are going to get upset when someone else sells a player short term, you shouldn’t be holding them at all.
Either you know why you are holding the player and are confident to do so or you aren’t. Allowing your emotions/actions to be pulled around by the often irrational actions of other people from day to day is losing trading.
So yes, there are plenty of irrational or “stupid” traders, but I don’t hold weak positions that mean I have to care what they do on a given day.
I am also picking up a general sense of confusion from some traders as not everyone knows where to put their money at the moment. There is a lot of noise and some fairly dodgy theories about what things like the Share Split mean being thrown around.
For members, I did a strategy article yesterday outlining my clear plan for navigating the next few months. This time of year is probably the toughest period to come out of successfully.
What everyone really needs is a clear idea of what you plan to do with your portfolio in the months ahead. That is the thing that needs to occupy our thinking at the moment, far more than which individual player you are going to buy or sell or who is rising or falling this week.
Look at the market conditions. Look at where you think it will go depending on the events and the trends. Filter out the short term noise.
Then set the strategy, then pick the players. Not the other way around.
Will he do this every week? No. He plays for Watford. (No disrespect Watford fans!)
But he is a player who has always had the potential to do well if he did settle and move to a big club. He has been something of a journeyman to date. But he is still only 24 and does have a decent number of top level minutes under his belt despite all that.
Goal threat is very good for a smaller club player. Passing is good enough, although completion % is not brilliant. But again, at a bigger club he will probably get more games where teams sit back and give him more space so this should improve.
So yes, at a suitable club I would back him as a solid performance player. It does feel like the Watford move was a platform for him to bounce to a bigger club, with a big sell on fee for Barcelona if so and the contract will only have a year to run at the end of the season.
Fairly likely to be getting Summer interest, then. But to where? AC Milan were interested in January.
Almiron is getting some buying ahead of what could be his first start today.
I suspect he may be introduced from the bench though and today will be about evaluating his performance rather than expecting a dividend win.
His stats from Atlanta in the MLS are good, very good in places. If he was at a bigger club I could get quite excited by him but he has to make a big step up in class at Newcastle whilst transitioning to a new country and club where he does not yet speak the language.
And wins at Newcastle will be hard to come by even if he has a great start.
If he does well, and a big club wants him, he has a hefty contract until 2024 and I don’t see Mike Ashley letting him go for cheap. So I’m fairly cool on his prospects right now.
A big performance could see buying but there isn’t really much to do with that success if it comes.
He is taking a pasting and it is probably to do with his limited minutes of late.
He has had starts but is getting repeatedly hooked off at the 70 minute mark which can really take the shine off what could otherwise be a good performance score.
When on the pitch his performances are still solid, though. I’ve seen a few people point out the string of weak performance scores lately but beware this kind of weak analysis. He is doing just fine and the underlying stats hold up nicely. Threat is slightly down but this probably reflects the limited minutes as much as anything.
So, if you are a true believer that he is the next global superstar and will one day take home the dividend hauls of a Messi or Ronaldo not much has changed in 4 games and you don’t have much to worry about.
However, he is a long way from that and it is always going to be the case that when a player has flown up so rapidly in a fit of hysteria, that hype is always going to fade eventually and with it so will the price.