After a very strong few weeks on the market we have had a bit of a tough few days. Not for every player, there are still plenty of risers. But there are plenty of fallers too. 

But the market is not dropping overall. We have just been living such charmed lives that when the market doesn’t go upwards it feels like a dip!

This sort of thing does happen all the time though, especially after a big period of growth. It’s expected and even healthy when markets take a breather or correct some prices that have run away from reality.

On the fallers list I basically see 2 main themes. The most obvious is that off trend players are taking a kicking and it is moving towards on trend players. And secondly it has not been straight forward for IPD buys either. 

In my members area I have a trendometer where I spend a lot of time tracking these positive and negative trends in the market because they are so important. The biggest trend is obviously preparation for the Summer and media speculation but there are many others in play, often competing against each other. 

Money has been slowly concentrating in the direction of the positive trends for a while now and that pace will quicken. So, players who do not meet that trend, however good they may be, are losing out.

You can hold the best performance player in the world but it’s not going to help you much unless your player strongly hits the current positive trends and does not fall foul of the negative ones. This is only going to intensify as the season end gets closer.

The second market theme is a bit harder to see but is a symptom of the renewed interest in experimentation with In Play Dividends after the increase. There is value here but it is not easy to find. It actually requires a lot of skill both to select the right player, and handle the trade well in what is a very short term, shark pit of a market. 

So, we can see drops in players likely bought for IPDs as flippers exit the trade, and it can leave people bewildered that their player scored and yet fell in price. 

This can be an issue because it tends to attract new traders who are drawn to the idea that they can buy cheaply and unearth hidden gems. But it is not easy to do at all. In fact, I would advise a new trader to start out with more stable players at least until they have the hang of things. 

The fortnightly blog I do with the excellent Football Index Guide, Football Index LM and new addition BuzzingPaul is out tonight where I talk about IPDs and the new dividends some more and the co-writers give their views on the same topics.

I never know what they will say until I see it published, but we often see things from different angles and it is well worth a read.

That will be linked on Twitter later.

Risers

Rodrygo

He will join Real in July and that has been a done deal for a long time. 

We are seeing renewed interest now in anticipation although I would say if you are buying now you are kidding yourself if you think you are getting in early in preparation for next season. 

When something is expected for so long you are never going to be getting the best value, rather, you are doing what the more patient guys who bought 6 months ago want you to do

As for the player, he’s got potential. Decent playing position, gets some chances and puts them away. Involvement is not brilliant but just about good enough for a forward for him to succeed in performance scoring if the goals flow. 

Will he play next season? He will probably get some sub appearances. Of course the expectation was including from me that Vinicius would not see the pitch time he did. Yet he had a good season for development even if he never got a win despite that.

We can’t assume the same will happen though. With one teenager breaking through it will be difficult to start a second. And you don’t ask for a £430m+ transfer chest if you aren’t planning on filling your team with Galacticos.

If this transfer was breaking and I was picking him up for £1.50 or under I’d be interested but the value went from this trade a long time ago in my view. 

Aaron Ramsey

Another long awaited transfer although perhaps in the wrong direction for some.

I’m not sure it really matters much since he is not a big media player most of the time. With the move long expected, it might not get much attention either when it happens.

I have long rated him as a performance player though. So a big club move like Juventus is really not a bad thing.

In the right role where he can get forward I’d back him to succeed. And given the price drop, I think he could be a great selection for pre-season.

The only hesitation is that this has not been the best year for performance at Juventus outside of Ronaldo. With everything going through him it does leave otherwise strong performance players feeding off scraps.

It’s one I will watch closely in pre-season and if I see something new at Juventus I could easily get interested in Ramsey again. 

Fallers

Achraf Hakimi

Ouch. This is a bad injury to an excellent performance player. He is out for the season at least. A real shame because I’ve enjoyed picking him out early on and watching his development.

He has another season left on his loan and I think he is better off staying at Dortmund where he is the guaranteed starter. So, he will be one to revisit in pre-season and hopefully he recovers in time.

Crises do create opportunities though and there are plenty of strong options at the back for Dortmund, Zagadou being my pick at the moment as his goal threat looks very strong lately.

Although, it may be best as a short term punt because it is late in the season to be shopping for defenders which are off trend and not being heavily bought lately.

Hot Gossip

Pogba swap deal for Bale/Kroos?!

This is pretty outrageous. 

If true it would just be massive and dominate the Summer. But can we believe it? 

It seems pretty outlandish. The rumours come from Pogba making Pogba comments saying that Real would be a dream for any player (although right now he is happy in Manchester). And Zidane from his end has been flirting with Pogba too.

The rumour is that if United did let Pogba go they would want either Bale or Kroos as part of the deal.

It seems pretty thin right now. A lot needs to happen and these swap deals have even more ways they can break down.

That said, you don’t even need the transfer to happen to get media from it. The rumours are just that at the moment but it will help holders as long as they last.

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FIT

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