An absolutely incredible day on the market yesterday after another very strong announcement from Football Index.
We now have two cash bonuses to look forward to as well as a summer of 5 place pay outs on media, an effective increase of 33%. Just in case anyone has spent the last 24 hours under a rock, you can find the details here.
I do a joint blog every fortnight with Football Index Guide which is released tonight where he and I give our Media Bonus reaction. I give my detailed thoughts on the specifics there so I won’t repeat them here I’ll cover something different. You can follow me on Twitter for the link once it is published later this evening.
After the announcement, there was a big reaction on the market afterwards and this reflects the confidence that this, combined with the previous Share Split and dividend increase, is going to give the market going forwards.
I was not particularly worried about any “end of season sell off”. With smart trading, it is possible to get your money into the right places where you can protect yourself from any drop of that nature. But, particularly if you are new to FI, that can be a real and understandable worry.
As I will discuss in detail on the joint blog later, there are now plenty of obvious reasons to trade throughout the Summer and the whole announcement is well crafted to ward off any end of season sell off fears.
It sets up what could be another excellent year.
My strategy since late February has been leading up to positioning correctly for the Share Split and the Summer. I was into the big media/transfer speculation players very early picking them up at optimal prices in preparation. I often talk about leading the market rather than following it and why it really pays off.
Because of that early positioning, I have had an excellent couple of months. And apparently so have a lot of site members who were following along with my strategy guides or doing something similar to me. Whilst many on social media were taking losses holding over priced or hyped up players and wondering why, the picks that flowed from my strategy were rising fast. And then yesterday they got an enormous boost.
I get a real mix of people joining the site. Lots of experienced traders who have their own plan but join for the analysis and research and time I save them. And many new traders as well who tell me they have made big profits and would have been lost without the strategy guidance.
I got some great emails from some very happy members this morning and I wanted to share a quote from one:
This is what the site is all about. People thinking for themselves but using the strategy guidance, analysis and research to get a big boost to their portfolio growth.
It’s not enough to just to know who the good performers are, although it certainly helps. You have to fit it all into a strategy and the trends in front of us.
There will be a new key strategy article soon so we can move into smashing the Summer and then setting up to start another great season and I can’t wait.
With the increased advertising also announced by FI, it feels like they are doing all the right things to drive the platform forward.
I am not sure whether 18/19 was the “breakthrough year” for FI or not. But I do remember the days where FI was definitely a bit of a niche/cult activity. Now, if I am ever talking to friends they almost always know what it is even if it confuses the hell out of them.
Maybe next year is the year where most of them play it too.
Finally, speaking of Football Index Guide, he has entered the Best Gambling Content Creator at the Football Blogging Awards. He has spent many a year producing high quality content that has helped people with their trading, and I am more than happy to vote for him.
If you have a second to do so, it not only supports a good content creator, but also gets the Football Index name up in lights. All it takes is a Tweet.
Not many will be surprised to see Hazard here after the announcement.
Possibly the longest running off and on again transfer in a while. And even recently we were told by the Press it was a done deal that would be announced in the coming days.
But it’s never straight forward with this move.
It is entirely possible that Madrid just break and pay the asking price and that is does indeed get wrapped up. However, I suspect to be polite and avoid a distraction, any agreement is best left until the end of the season before it is announced if they were being sensible.
It is a tricky trade to manage because he is going out of the EPL which is generally considered to be the wrong way. However, at Real he could be superb for performance so if media prospects diminish then performance prospects improve. He could also do so well that he gets media anyway, since there is bound to be British interest in how he gets on.
However, the market tends to operate on an autopilot in these situations. So I would suspect that any announcement of a done deal may cause mass sales.
But, I also think that if starting for Real next season, there will be plenty of traders interested in his signature by then.
Another big ticket beneficiary of the media bonus.
Pogba can always be relied on to bag some media even if he is just getting a new hair cut or doing general Pogba things.
I would say though I think the odds of a real transfer drama are very low for the Summer. This feels to me like a bit of feather ruffling to get a big contract out of United.
There is also the Champions League tonight where United have a strong chance of going out. Or, Pogba could have a match winning hero moment and things could go crazy. More likely the former but the latter is possible.
In performance terms recently he has been very reliant on penalties for goal threat so that may need to happen or else he will need to get forward more generally tonight.
Will be fascinating to watch the price later.
Honestly I could have picked any of 10 players here. The intent is to highlight the stunning % gains available very quickly in this market.
Brandt is someone people will generally remember as a good performer after strong Jan/Feb performances. But he has really gone off the boil since (better in the last two actually).
Because of that positive feeling, as soon as he picked up a Liverpool link today he was right up there with an 18% increase in just a few hours.
There is a ton of cash just waiting to be collected all the way down the market at the moment and there is no need to focus on just a handful of players at the top of the rises sorted by pennies.
I prefer to ignore the way FI sort the risers and focus on % gains instead. It is a much better reflection of where the real profits are.
Nobody on the current falling list of note this evening but it is worth a a word on who has been falling recently.
There has been some bewilderment about certain popular players dropping in the last month. Or people wondering why X hype player hasn’t caught the rise when others have.
This isn’t because one big fish left the market. That is the favourite theory of pumpers upset that their player has dived. There is too much cash being traded now for one person to have such a sustained effect over so long.
The real cause was the trends shifting. To keep value and rise players generally need reasons to hold them for the Summer. Without that, they are vulnerable. And the higher the price, the more vulnerable they are.
This is a reason not to carry over priced hype picks in your portfolio because a) much of the rising has been done already and b) if anyone is going to stagnate or fall it will be the over bought player who has fading reasons to hold them in the Summer.
To sum up, they are low reward high risk trades.
One of the other candidates other than Hazard for a blockbuster transfer. I quite like the trade and I think there is plenty of gossip left in this yet.
However, it feels a bit like “I am pretty sure he is going to leave, but I am far from sure about where he is going.”
Holders need that big EPL move and who would take him? Manchester United or Spurs look the most likely. But with Bale’s wages it seems like there is a lot to be overcome.
And the Pogba swap thing. Well. I just don’t believe it. I like Guilleme Balague as a source and he is convinced that Pogba leaving is nonsense.