The market shows no signs of slowing down in it’s pursuit of media friendly Summer talent.

It may not feel like it for some though as the slide of premium and hype related buys continues. 

The shared factor amongst big price fallers in recent weeks is their over valuation, often due to the prices powering ahead in the build up to the Share Split. Many seem surprised by it but it was foreseeable that the market would correct after that huge growth. The “player x will always go up forever” crowd are wrong.

I am going to make a public review of my members area strategy guide covering the last 3 months available tomorrow to all readers. 

I will discuss why the last few months was so successful for site strategy. Not just in making the most of the opportunities but also avoiding any of these big losses through good risk management.

Money has definitely moved towards the mid priced and budget end of the market as people try harder to look for value beyond the obvious picks. There are therefore some really good choices on the risers list lately where people are finding both quality and value.

With most people having or still moving towards a media focused portfolio for the Summer by now, it is not all plain sailing. 

Transfer holds are precarious because unlike a performance player in early/mid season where we can shrug off a bad game or two, a transfer hold can immediately soar or get trashed because of just one news story. We’ve got to pay attention more than ever.

And there is a long time to go. May 16th is the earliest an EPL club can make a domestic signing, with the international window opening on June 9th for foreign transfers.

As with last season, the EPL window will close early on August the 8th sooner than other leagues across Europe.

Interest in media players is going to persist throughout the Summer but these trades are very beholden to their transfer links coming good. 

For the moment though, not many deals are being outright confirmed or shut down so traders still seem happy to buy up media picks in anticipation.

Risers

Bernardo Silva

Superb goal in a pressure game. Silva is a wonderful player to watch.

On the surface he should be a solid performance player with decent goal threat and good involvement in the game. So why does he often end up with disappointing 120-160 scores even on good days?

His stats make interesting reading. This is the sort of player that takes high quality stats and detailed analysis to pinpoint the issue with. 

His headline stats whether you want to measure it in expected goals or shots are decent. 

He makes a good number of passes although often at around 80-85% accuracy given his advanced position which can take the edge of this. Sometimes, making lots of passes can be expensive if a decent % of them go astray.

So, to regularly score big with a midfielder you need something like either more threat and a bit more passing (like James Rodriguez) or less threat but more passes at a higher accuracy rate (Like Alcantara).

You can also say that Silva has been a bit unlucky. Or, rather, he suffers from the 1st world problem of being in a side that often demolish opponents. Like we have seen with Bayern recently, when your team is scoring 5 in a game your odds of getting the match winner dive. 

Incidentally, the influence of the random game winning goal element is a bad feature of FI scoring that needs to go in my opinion. It bears almost no relation to actual performance.

Lorenzo Insigne

Insigne is a potentially fantastic performance player who has never quite lived up to it. He showed it in early season with a succession of high scores but then he has really fizzled out. 

It’s pretty shocking to check his stats this morning actually and see that he has only scored 3 since early November (6 months). He got 10 from mid-August to early-November (3 months).

We know he has the ability but something has not been right at Napoli all season and the rumblings of unrest and wanting to leave have been going on for a while. It is now pretty open with the fans booing their one time hero.

The big transfer rumours are hotting up now with Chelsea (if not banned) and Liverpool apparently leading the chase.

It looks credible because Insigne has also changed agent to Raiola, the man known for making big moves including Pogba to Manchester United.

His poor performance in the second half of the season crushed his price so given the amount of interest he would get in the EPL, it’s a trade I have liked for a long time.

Fallers

Moise Kean

Another beating for a recently heavily purchased and hyped player.

I see some people confused by this but from my perspective I don’t know how some do not see this coming unless you are new to FI.

Amidst all the hype, you have to respect the trends and Kean has no reason to hold him in the Summer and was always set for a dive after his huge peak.

Getting on early and riding to the top knowing hype buyers will over pay is great but piling in late is just bad trading.

The other reason is that after someone like Hudson-Odoi takes such a fall, it is likely the same people who are on this sort of trade. They will have been badly burned and get nervous about other similar players.

The market can be a house of cards because in the same way that one type of player rising can cause other similar players to rise with them, it works the same on the way down too. 

Hot Gossip

Paul Pogba

I was a signed up member of the “no way this transfer happens” club. But I think I might have been wrong.

When United were high flying and looked good for Champions League qualification, it felt different. Like Pogba was just grumbling to get a bigger contract.

But after this slump and with the chance of CL football fading, I can see Pogba pushing to get out to get CL football elsewhere. 

And I can also see why Manchester United might be sick of his antics. OGS clearly wants players who will bleed for the club. And Pogba plays when he wants.

It was a bit curious that Pogba tanked on this news because this probably sets up a good amount of media interest in the coming weeks and months whether it happens or not. 

And, even if he moves to Real, his performance and media dividend potential is still decent (although he may lose penalties which would hurt).

I think the cause of this nervousness is that savage spread. Not everyone wants to be locked into it when there is uncertainty ahead, even if some of that uncertainty could have upsides. 

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