Football Index Daily: Tuesday 7 May

Welcome back after a week’s break for the Daily!

It’s been a really hectic week and sometimes I have to focus on the members content just to pack it all in. In the last week, it was releasing the new site Key Strategy for the Summer that occupied most of my time.

These strategy shifts are key moments in the year. Having a clear plan particularly now when there is a lot of confusion around and the market is unsettled is so important. So it’s something I wanted to take the time to get right. 

I’ve had some great feedback so far on the new one and if you want to see how the last Key Strategy got on, I’ve reviewed that here. If you are interested in joining the site, there is no better time than now as we begin a new phase in the market cycle.

“I’ve been following your strategies so far and had great results. Around £8k up now from a £12.8k investment. Keep up the great work, there is no way I would have achieved the results I have so far without your guides.”

Richard Price

But that’s not all that has been going on. There is tracking transfer trades and reviewing every game is still important as we look ahead to next season. 

After a wonderful April, May has seen a tougher time for traders on the FI market.

We went through a period in April where expectations were really high and nobody wants to miss out, so they plow in as much cash as they can. You can do that when everything is going up. 

But, reality does bite after a time. 

With transfer trades in particular, they can be red hot one minute and then a new story breaks (often, not even a reliable one!) and suddenly they can be in free fall. This will get harder as the transfer window progresses because more and more deals will be confirmed or shut down.

It’s the nature of the beast and whilst there seems to be a lot of anger and confusion on social media (can’t believe people are selling X, they are idiots!) I don’t buy all this stuff. 

A lot of is also really contradictory and obviously self serving and should be tuned out. 

We have to take personal responsibility for our trading. It is within our own control and we do not have to be completely at the mercy of the market. If you are employing good risk management strategies you massively increase your odds of avoiding these kinds of losses and maximising your gains.

Often I think people get far too attached to players and start supporting them in the same way we would support our football teams. 

It’s an expensive mistake. If a player’s price gets too far beyond any kind of rational value, no matter how much you love them, it’s time to move on.

Risers

Paulo Dybala

A very difficult and disappointing season for Dybala as he has been largely sidelined at Juventus.

Even when playing, like most Juventus players these days, he lives in Ronaldo’s shadow. Everything goes through him and it leaves other talented players feeding off scraps.

Most traders are very aware of Dybala’s potential quality though which people are quick to buy should any good rumours come his way.

I have no doubt that in the right team and with the right role he could be one of the best performance players on FI. 

The links don’t get much better than Liverpool or Manchester United for the market. Those are sure to create one hell of a media splash if they do happen.

And, they would be good for on-going media prospects, too.

They could however be ropey for performance purposes. Neither club are particularly strong for attacking performance dividends.

Pogba manages it but he is heavily reliant on penalties and only plays when he wants to.

The Liverpool front 3 are worse than you would think because they are fast paced killers who don’t play around with the ball enough and therefore have low baselines. Great in real life, not so much on FI.

If however Dybala got an attacking midfield role he could do well provided he was granted big licence to push forward.

None of that will matter too much in the short term. If a big EPL transfer happens optimism for him will be huge.

James Maddison

Maddison has always been a performance suitable talent but it was always hard to show it at struggling Leicester.

But, Leicester’s huge improvement under Rodgers changes the calculation. They suddenly look relatively performance friendly so I am more optimistic on their assets. 

Maddison is the chief beneficiary. I’ve noted his strong potential for a long time on the site.

Previously, I thought he would need a bigger club to realise it. Now, it looks like he could get some performance wins at Leicester.

That has both positives and negatives. Some were hoping for a big transfer this Summer and those prospects look less now. The feel good factor around a club and next season optimism counts for a lot. And he is on a long contract.

On the other hand, he may now not need the transfer to get some wins next season. So long term performance prospects just improved.

Fallers

Bruno Fernandes

Probably my favourite player of the year. He’s had a fair few dips up and down around transfer windows and I’ve lost count of the number of times I’ve been able to take a profit on him.

All of that pales in comparison to his latest rise though, going from 50p to £2 in just over 3 months. Crazy.

He is really performance suitable and I’d back him to do well at a big club like the rumoured Manchester City. Providing he plays almost every game.

City is full of talent that could be incredible if they were guaranteed pitch time like Mahrez. But the rotation policy hurts.

For me it’s an example of a great player that has served me well but you don’t want to hang on too long to.

Lorenzo Insigne

I’ve picked Insigne as this is a tale of two transfer fallers.

With Insigne, it does look like he could now stay at Napoli which seems odd given all of his previous statements and body language pointed towards an exit.

But, Insigne was a decent bet because his price was never overheated and because he retains performance suitability and value at Napoli. 

In fact, he could be excellent if a new contract puts any problems behind him and he achieves the level he is capable of and showed in early season.

That news brought a painful dip for sure. But at least here with a good player if you want to you have the option of holding into pre-season where interest is very likely to rekindle.

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