CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FINAL DAY. BUT, DO TRADERS CARE?

Absolutely huge game tonight and if anything the most notable thing is the absence of trader interest in it!

This time last year that was not the case. And, I could read that as a sign that the market is getting savvier. 

It’s just one game and buying expensive players just for that with not much to do with them until August is not a smart move.

People also go for that very obvious flip ahead of the game and it is getting a bit predictable. That tends to work in the quarter finals and semis because people do see reasons to buy for the future games. But for one game? Not so much.

I still think during the game the (beer fueled?!) excitement will probably get the better of many and a good goal (match winning ideally) could see people pile in. Or, if someone is leading media today they might get a boost before 2pm.

It’s interesting to note though and as I’ve said many times, I think FI will get much tougher eventually because traders will get better and less easy to mug off. 

There will always be new traders that can be taken advantage of by the flippers. But bad traders tend to give their money over time to the good traders and the market will gradually toughen up in the coming years.

In fact, it is some of the veterans who are most vulnerable to this because if you stick to the old formula that worked in the past when the market was very kind you may one day find that the market has moved around you.

Risers

Neymar

A bit of relief for Neymar holders after a rough few months. He’s fallen from a high of £8.50 to £7.40. But, has climbed back to £7.54 today.

This could be because he has come through an injury scare and will now play in the Copa America.

Compared to 17/18, Neymar severely underperformed in 18/19. There are lots of traders, usually passive and big fish, who are content to hold the big names come what may. But they do need the less patient traders to co-operate to hold the price and in the last few months that has drained away.

This was very likely after the Share Split and I talked about that a lot back then. Announced so early in November, the SS dominated the season and I really think FI should have given 1 month’s notice not 4.  

With so long to build, the hype got way out of control and so did prices, particularly at the premium end following over estimation of how much the Share Split would psychologically benefit the top 10/20 players. Actually, it’s benefited all of them.

The Share Split hype pushed many premium players to extreme prices. And despite what people say about dividends, many are not content with a steady 10-15% annual return on FI when they know so much more is available.

If the capital appreciation stops, the player will stagnate and then decline as traders get bored and that has happened to many premium players not just Neymar.

Neymar is however one of the strongest premiums because he delivers that mix of both media and performance no matter what league he plays in. And, he’s still 2 years or so away from anyone worrying about age. So, he’s a fairly safe asset compared to other high priced players who don’t have much to back them up other than speculation.

Is this a “buy the dip!” scenario? I’d say not really. Just because a player was over priced before and comes down a bit doesn’t make them good value. 

He is worth watching though because if an unexpected transfer did happen it would be a stunning media spree and he’d explode in value. He obviously wants to leave but with the contracts the way they are it is probably a Summer too early realistically.

Corentin Tolisso

Welcome back to a player I used to talk about a lot on the site before his horrible season ending injury. 

He appeared in the final of the German Cup at the weekend from the bench. He didn’t do anything of note particularly but he saw a decent amount of the ball for his minutes played. And, we know his quality.

He is capable of 10 goals in a full season at a conservative estimate and has a fantastic overall game to back it up. 

Bayern are one of my most highly rated performance sides and the only real worry about most of their players is rotation. I’ll be analysing that very closely during pre-season.

He has been quietly creeping up again in the last month from 80p to 97p now and it shows that there is appetite to pick up good value talent for next season even this far out from August.

Fallers

Moussa Dembelé

I haven’t exactly been a Moussa Dembelé fan because let’s face it he is a pretty weak performance player.

He is however looking like a great goalscorer so there is something there, at least for IPDs.

It was the transfer rumour to Manchester United that pumped the price but the statement from the Lyon chief Juninho:

"There will be only be three departures from the club this summer and they won't be either Moussa Dembele or Memphis Depay.

"Moussa's form has been a nice surprise for us this season. He's very good technically and we want to build on that."

"We want to keep him and we will."

Now, I often talk about credible sources and that’s about as credible as you get. Chief execs. can say a lot of things but if they just trying to be difficult to extract a higher price they’ll usually leave a bit of wiggle room.

This statement is so strong that if he did sell him he would look weak. So I believe it. 

However, I am warming to Dembelé a bit after the boost to IPDs. There is good money to be made in that area now provided you can find value. 

And, as per my members U21 Euros scouting article, Dembelé does it for the France U21’s too, scoring 5 in qualifying. That’s coming up in June so a good performance could see him get attention.

Ideally I’d like him a bit closer to £1. But the value isn’t bad now.

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