We hit our first international break of the season.

Traditionally, this is a time for some selling and we have definitely seen that. No doubt we will see the reverse as the break comes to an end and people come back in for (probably) some of those very same players.

This time, it’s a little different though. We have European qualifiers now and they count for performance! This is a strong reason to be holding many performance based players from European teams right the way through the international break. 

Not only will many stars be in action, in many cases they will be playing some really mismatched opponents where cricket scores will be possible. This is great for both IPD and performance scoring in general.

Even aside from dividends, strong performances from players in big games really put a player in the shop window and for many who only usually watch the EPL, it will be the first time some traders are watching some foreign league players on TV.

This all bodes well for people who prepare for such things and operate ahead of the market. 

But what baffles me (even though I should be used to this kind of thing by now) is why we see so much social media chatter from people who seem to have only just realised the qualifiers are happening?

We have known about this for months!

Are they playing the fool and encouraging others to follow them in? Or are they genuinely only trading a few days ahead at any one time? Probably a mix of both.

As a general rule, by the time an event is trending heavily on social media you have probably missed the best chance to profit. It often pays to think a bit further ahead than just next week.

Risers

Romelu Lukaku

This has been a bit of an odd rise, as traders generally hate moves out of the EPL.

Perhaps in this case, the price was so rock bottom some people thought the only way was up!

He does remain a very strong goalscorer on his day and there is no reason that should not continue at Inter, especially now he appears to be on penalties. So you can tick the IPD returns box.

For performance wins though, his overall contribution to games is very weak so he would need to be scoring 2 or 3 to challenge for a win. He can do that occasionally though.

As a point in his favour, he is not normally known for assists but he has created 3 chances in his first 2 games for Inter so if that continued he could get that extra boost.

I back him to deliver goals and an occasional decent performance score. 

But I’m not quite sure why he would be worth £2.30 in a foreign league, there are far better prospects available for much cheaper.

Gian-Luca Waldschmidt

Waldschmidt is a solid young goalscorer with a good trend fit and has just broken into the senior Germany side. 

He’s well regarded as a future prospect and big transfer rumours for next Summer are not out of the question. 

I first started discussing him on the site in May for a members only  scouting article ahead of the U21 Euros tournament. Back then I said:

Waldschmidt has 2 in the last 5 for the U21’s and could be a good performance prospect for the future. Has some transfer rumblings including Gladbach and Leipzig. Price is still decent at 63p. Quite like him.

He was the only Germany forward I picked out and he went on to have quite the tournament scoring 7 and winning the Golden Boot with ease. 

For Freiburg, he has started the season well scoring 3 in the last 4. His overall involvement is nothing special but his goal scoring ability looks consistently solid.

At £1.37 today that’s a 117% increase from when I first highlighted him for members in May at 63p which is a stunning return. 

This is far from the first big winner recently and that’s probably why members gave an incredible satisfaction rating of 4.9/5 in the August survey, they report getting very good value for their £2.25 a week!

Waldschmidt probably has a bit further to go given his trend profile and ability. 

We can’t expect too many wins at modest Freiburg, but I do expect the goals to keep coming and he has a good chance of some good transfer rumours later on.

 

Fallers

Mauro Icardi

Bit of a striker theme today and depending on what timescale you use Icardi could equally be in the risers.

He got a huge rise following the PSG rumours but then perhaps expectedly fell back substantially overnight after the hype died down as the flippers took their profits.

Something to remember and always be wary of when chasing a rise.

However, I can see good reasons to be interested in Icardi at PSG and now the dust is settled I think £1.62 at time of writing is a fair price.

Given his quality, the weakness of Ligue 1 and injuries at PSG he has a decent chance of coming in and making a strong start.

Icardi is a fairly awful performance player so he does need 2 goals or more to seriously challenge. But you can hardly wish for a better environment for him to run riot than PSG.

IPD returns should be decent even if he doesn’t hit any performance wins so there is real value there. And he is still just 26. 

Solid choice. 

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