A failure to work within the game as it is, rather than the game you wish for, is a very bad trading habit.

This manifests in complaining about the rules, bad luck, and FI decisions going against you amongst other things.

It’s always been present. Maybe it’s just me but reading various social media it seems to have gotten worse lately.

I don’t care per se, I can just ignore it.

But what really comes to mind is just how much money these people are costing themselves by adopting this victim/loser mentality.

Typical comments include “He got a hat-trick it’s unfair he didn’t win!”. “I bought Player X, they are a superstar but they never win performance, the matrix is wrong!” or “I’ve bought the best defenders but they never get rewarded for their tackles.”

It reminds me of that sort of person we’ve all probably played something competitive against who loses and it’s never their fault. 

You could be winning a game of pool in a bar and all your opponent goes on about is how they are only losing because:

– the table is a bit wonky.

– there isn’t any chalk. 

– they forgot to bring their own cue from home.

Well guess what? We’re all playing on the same table, none of us have any chalk and all of the cues look like they led former lives as broom handles.

It’s the same on FI. The scoring matrix has improved but it’s not a perfect representation of the real world. Like the wonky pool table it’s got quirks that you have to learn and start to factor in.

It will also never be perfect because a) there is a lot more to what makes a good player than numbers and no system will ever truly capture it and b) FI aren’t trying to.

FI are trying to make a good entertainment product and there will always be a heavy bias towards goals and other exciting and watchable actions like assists. The overall performance matters a lot but FI (correctly) assume that people want to be cheering in goals rather than counting tackles as the main factor.

So maybe some people think the rules are wrong. Maybe the recent dividend increase didn’t go their way. 

Being bitter and angry about that only hurts that person because if they refuse to learn the rules as they exist or won’t adapt their style to suit what is coming it only hurts them.

And even worse, they’ll never improve if they allow themselves to fall into that victim/loser mentality.

 

Risers

Paulo Dybala

I think Dybala deserves a mention after a very long period in the wilderness. Its well worth remembering that he is potentially one of FI’s best players given the chance.

He is getting one and it feels safe to say that Dybala is now a fixture in this Juventus side.

Just a 162 this weekend time but it was a draw. The goal was from a penalty with Ronaldo off the pitch but he had plenty of good chances outside of that and could have had 2-3 easily.

For the forward category he’s an elite level player because his overall involvement in the game is a cut above the rest. Eventually there is no reason he can’t be one of FI’s very best if he can get consistent pitch time.

He’s superb and I expect him to be putting up some strong challenges for wins in the coming games if his run in the side continues.

At £3.10 for that level of player you can’t complain, it’s solid value for what you get.

One concern is that for those hoping for that big EPL transfer like we had rumours of last Summer, that door is closing as he settles in at Juventus. He obviously wants to stay and it’s looking more and more likely.

On the other hand, he’s looking closer than ever to realising his potential and Juventus is a good club.

The lack of Euro 2020 will hurt players like this this year a bit. 

But, if he keeps posting the solid performance scores I expect to see, he should do well in the coming months.

Yann Karamoh

A big rise for Karamoh, probably a combination of his best performance for a while this weekend plus playing today in a limited game day.

People spy an “easy” win!

I’ve kept an eye on Karamoh as a player with potential. He has never quite delivered it with a poor season for Bordeaux last campaign and his start to life at Parma has been uninspiring.

Prior to the weekend’s game (maybe he had a point to prove against former club Inter?) he hasn’t had a notable chance to score or even made one all season. 

He’s also showing the kind of numbers that mean even if he were to score, he might struggle to win on any kind of competitive day.

So, for a single game day punt, you can see that he might win but reading the stats it’s hard to see how he can be a regular competitor.

With an astonishing 40p rise this week it feels like a shaky price that could come back down if he doesn’t win tonight.

Fallers

Teji Savanier

Savanier’s price tumbles after a lack of immediate impact.

He was hyped on social media as a performance God, with some extremely selective use of statistics to faciliatate the repeated pumping.

If there is anything worse than no analysis, it’s weak analysis deliberate or otherwise.

It’s been clear to me that he was never going to be a top level performance player, although he should pop up with an occasional big score 2-3 times a season.

Anyone who really knows how to read stats and interpret them for FI will have known this for months. 

Even if you don’t read the stats, I think most traders would instinctively understand that PB Gods do not play for Montpellier.

With this sort of defensive midfield player with penalties, you may get one penalty every 4-5 games roughly if lucky. For a small club player, you need that to come in a game where they win which might be 30-40% of the time for a mid table team. 

So despite penalties, the odds of getting one and then it counting aren’t that brilliant, especially when it probably needs to be the match winner, another uncertainty.

Passing stats etc are high but with a low accuracy for this sort of player. Making a high number of passes but inaccurately can drag back a good score.

All up, he’s ok and will put up a couple of big scores but it takes a lot of stars to align. You can make a case for him being a £1.10 to £1.40 player but beyond that is highly dubious and always was.

 

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