Outlook

Caution

Live Blog

The main article from this morning is below. From here, I’ll run this page Live Blog style with the most recent entries at the top. As above I’m trying to answer questions from members today, so please get sending them in.

17:13

I’m going to wrap up today’s Live Blog here, but I’ll do them again whenever it seems relevant, especially the forthcoming announcements on more action from FI.

Final thought on situations like this: everyone is going to take a hit when the whole market drops. We might have protected ourselves and blunted the impact in the last week or two and if so it may not feel like a time to celebrate but we should be quietly happy with this work.

Any mug can make a profit when the market is flying (some more than others!) but it’s navigating times like this successfully without letting emotions get the better of us that makes a good trader. 

These sorts of events are just going to happen and we have to be able to deal with them without freaking out. Look at the real stockmarket in recent weeks, it’s far worse.

Our chief concern isn’t what other people are doing on the market or on social media. It’s about our own game. Our portfolio. Does each player have solid reasons for being there? What’s the reason I can expect traders to want these players in weeks or months from now?

If we have good answers to those questions then we’re probably not going far wrong.

Good evening all and thanks to those who sent in questions – I couldn’t get to all of them but I did read them all!

16:58

Question: With all that’s happening now will you be amending the ‘Trend fit’ so we can all have an idea of value and where we should be looking in the next few months once the dust settles?

Yep definitely. I think with things so fluid things like this the Live Blog with more details has been more useful. The trend lines are good but tend to work best when something is going to be a trend for a period of time.

We currently think media players will be the thing and I am sure they will. However which media players? is the question.

Before this weeks announcement everyone would have said Sancho was the sure bet for a pump. Because of the details of that bonus, it ended up being Bruno.

I’ll think more about this and also be Live Blogging on that announcement too when it comes.

I also expect FI to do something beyond just media. Again, I think it’s a time to be cautious rather than a time to be plowing in this way or that saying “this is the next dead cert!” as you see people doing. I think that is a mistake.

I also will do more on the transfer section which has taken a back seat mid update due to all the corona virus stuff. 

In the absence of football though I don’t just take the day off! I always keep the same hours so if Scouting is reduced, I’ll be doing whatever seems most relevant to help members. Actually I think some of my most popular/useful work has come in pre-season in the absence of football as the pre-season results article showed.

16:04

Question: I am generally happy with my port with PB players and majority have a potential transfer in them. I have no cash balance though. Would you 1) sit it out but potentially risk 1-2 months of stagnant market/potential further declines or 2) Look to free up some cash [for potential drops].

I think the ideal scenario to be in right now is:

a) to be happy with the players in your portfolio with a long term view in mind, and able to stomach any short term dips in them if need be. 

AND

b)  Have around 10-25% cash in balance from trimming the at risk players before today. 

If we are happy with our portfolio as per A but have not done B, I do not think today with these savage spreads is a moment where we can correct that.

We can’t free up cash to hunt for value if we are selling players way below their value to do it – we’re just chasing our tail.

I would sit tight if happy with what I have. You might want to earmark some weaker players, and if things ease up and FI start softening the spreads you might be able to start freeing up balance at some point in the next week.

I would definitely want some balance on the sidelines but I don’t think there is a panic for it – I do not expect everything to suddenly get better in the next few days.

15:58

Question: I’m afraid to jump on this media trend train, which we see in the last couple of days as I think as soon as we see clearly about the next couple of months,  people will move their money back to other players. I think my money should go Into none top five league players who have strong transfer rumours. Do you think it’s good thinking?

I think there is something to be said about “what is a media player?” here.

The most seemingly assured of Summer media would be Sancho. Kane is recently coming into this as transfer rumours build and offers better value. You could also have Neymar as a fairly safe premium. Fernandes is hot right now but in the absence of fixtures is likely to peter out over the Summer before becoming highly desirable again. 

Pogba… for nearly a year now I’ve said his price is doomed and the only thing that saves him is an unexpected new contract and commitment to stay. Recently, that has looked more likely, hence his recovery. But it’s still very up in the air.

Grealish is also in this sort of territory – he seemingly has value, but all it takes is for Manchester United to come out and say they aren’t interested and bang he struggles to justify £3. 

TAA, Haaland. Way above true value and have a premium price tag, but no real reason to win media and no reason to win performance with fixtures cancelled. At least TAA can credibly win when he plays, Haaland generally cannot be expected to win even if playing. 

Actually, in a hilariously odd way that makes Haaland kind of immune from fixtures being shut down. Can’t reduce his odds of winning to zero if they were zero already! Sort of a joke. Sort of not.

Sterling is in a middle ground. Premium, but actually quite boring at the moment and only a long shot Real Madrid move might ignite interest – but then if leaving the EPL he’d struggle for the same reason Pogba did.

With Sancho, you’ve got a strong chance of summer media but also everyone knows that and you pay for it. If anything goes wrong, and we’ve seen this today, the spread on him is whacked to an insane level and you are stuck with it. 

So yes you’ve got premium media options here and some are more sensible than others. What I really avoid like the plague is the players that are dependant on just one thing for their long term value. 

Grealish is the worst offender here. You see it on social media where people go “ah the brainiacs were saying Grealish was bad value at £4 and look at him now!”. Get out of town. 

You can ride these headlines as long as they last but as soon as they get shut down you are in deep trouble. And nobody knows when that will happen it’s just gambling. This one win doesn’t make up for the other 6 players this trader probably lost out on. 

A few of these picks can be smart but be selective. Throwing all of our balance this way would be stupid and it actually reminds me a bit of the Share Split last year where people went overboard on a handful of premiums, opening up huge value elsewhere. Ignoring the premiums whilst most ran towards them and going for the value instead was incredibly profitable. 

One of the reasons I could move swifter was because I did not have large sums locked up in premium players which can be very hard to sell.

By “media player” I would tend to go for the performance suitable/transfer prospect player. This generally means EPL transfers, foreign league transfers can get interest but it has to be a big one or the player has to be seen as very performance suitable at the potential club.

The ineligible league players you mention are generally a good bet for the reason I said in a question below – ineligible league players never relied on short term fixtures for their value anyway and so should be largely unaffected except for traders who sell everything in a general freak out. 

But we have to bear in mind here that we always overestimate how much media medium to small transfers are actually going to get. In reality, it’s going to be a small number of big fish who sweep the board just like Fernandes did in January. The hard bit is we don’t actually know which ones will do it, not even Sancho is a guarantee.

This is why selling them before the actual transfer window, profiting from the hype, rather than the actual media dividend, is often the best way to handle transfers. But it depends on what FI announce in terms of further media offerings. 

15:30

Question: I am a new trader (2 months) who blindly bought without fully understanding the platform. In the middle of Feb I joined your site and started to turn things around by trimming my portfolio and purchasing full season fit players. (FIT edit: this sounds like a plant now :)) I had started to progress but now find myself in the situation we are all in with my portfolio  in minus 5%.
 
With the ongoing situation where all/majority of leagues will be affected would you advise looking at players for next season, rather than trying to guess the shorter term impact ?

Tricky because many of the players we would want for “next season” are also the players who are taking an absolute hammering now.

I think this is quite similar to the answer below in that trimming off these players, waiting for drops, then coming back to them is probably the optimal strategy. Obvious strategy yes – it’s just not easy to do. I got the moment for selling at risk players right which was last week and Tuesday. Picking the moment to go back to them will be harder.

I think we can get into some carefully crafted “next season” or transfer picks, and there is a question below about the sorts of players I’d consider now.

But overall, I think it is just a time to be cautious, keep cash in the balance, and wait for that right moment to get Greedy. I don’t think that moment comes in the next few days, we’ve got more turbulence to get through. 

15:05

Question. A lot of my port has players that I was hoping would do well in the europa/champions league and had euros. Players like Eriksen, Gnabry etc. With all the fixtures being cancelled do you think they’ll still hold their value at the beginning of next season?

I think genuinely good players like these will always pull traders back to them, and as mentioned just below, it’s another reason I stick close to real value rather than rubbish.

You’ve always got that option of waiting it out and you know there are good reasons why money will naturally flow back to them later.

So, if you are a long term minded trader who isn’t particularly active, I think you can wait it out if you are happy to wait until corona blows over, which may be 2-3 months.

More optimally, as discussed here, we could have been shaving players heavily dependent on CL/Europa and/or Euros. These were most at risk of fixture cancellation.

Having done so, we may get the opportunity to buy them back at a discount if people panic and get over pessimistic. That is when the biggest value is created.

But fundamentally, if you are holding good players at good clubs with a decent trend fit, and I’d include Gnabry and Eriksen in that for sure, you have every reason to expect people to come back to them next season. 

And that can be sooner than you would think. People will want to be preparing portfolios early, you may only need to wait until May.

A more difficult question is should I be selling a player like this now? I mean. At these spreads? I think it would be extremely unlikely for Gnabry to drop lower than £2.48. 

These spreads are this big for a reason – they are deliberately awful value. 

The moment to sell was Tuesday or earlier as discussed here at the time. By now, I think we have what we have and we are closing the door after the horse has bolted in most cases.

With a good player with a savage spread that will be in demand for next season most likely, I think sticking with it is probably going to be the best course of action. 

It’s where you are holding a bad/hype based player that you need to sweat a bit – what is their reason that money will naturally flow back to them in the absence of real dividend prospects?

14:39

Let’s take a break from questions to look at the latest from Adam Cole. 

It’s a good general statement, says the right sort of keep calm and carry on things. All good. 

I’m not sure I quite agree that football fixtures can be expected to be rescheduled rather than cancelled. If you look at the calendar it is very difficult to fit it all in. You might have a shot if Euro 2020 is moved to make space AND corona settles down relatively quickly. But, this is just speculation, nobody really knows.

The point about dividend yields is a good one. And it’s one reason I stick to players who are actually good on FI. Let’s say the worst happened and our players really took a battering – we still have the dividend payouts for 3 years and all is not lost.

If we hold rubbish that can never be expected to win dividends then we are holding a pointless entry in Adam Cole’s spreadsheet for 3 years until it dies. 

He discusses the potential boost to media payouts in the event of a fixture lockdown. Good. But, like I just said below, they are going to need to broaden this out at least to transfer dividends – you aren’t getting a stable market based on media alone.

And they’ve mentioned the measures to combat short termism, which I assume is a reference to the whopping spreads that appeared today. It’s a smart move and without this I think we’d be seeing much much worse.

14:37

Question: Is there any truth in the following :

“Comments on twitter are saying that a media driven FI, due to no football, will benefit only those who can afford the big media named players – Pogba, Sancho, etc – and that everyone else will be left out and will just leave.”

At the risk of upsetting someone because I have no idea who said it (!) I think this is garbage.

If I have £100 I can still buy 10 Pogba’s if I want to.  I wouldn’t want to. But I could.

The real risk here is that many people find media predictable and boring. And it is. It is performance that has driven the growth of FI. With no performance,  people may indeed leave at least until it is time to prepare for the new season. That could actually be earlier than many think.

Media does have an important part to play in covering for dry periods, usually around 2 months in Summer. But can it substitute in for 4 months effectively? 

I doubt it, not in a way that creates a balanced market. And FI probably need to do something that would be of benefit to performance players or at least performance players with transfers (like bringing in a beefed up Transfer Dividend like was trialed in January).

For all the chatter of transfers, including from me, when it really comes to the business end of the window, we know it will be 2-3 big name players who are going to be hogging the media almost all the time. It’s not going to be middle rankers or 17 year old players moving clubs – the real world cares about that much less than we do. 

I think FI are probably aware of that and will try to come up with something.

This however maybe the reason we see an irrational dip in performance players and it could make them extremely undervalued – it can be an opportunity and it is one that my sorts of strategies would naturally profit from.

14:19

Question: What are your triggers to enter the market again to scoop up the “value players” that have been oversold – is it purely price based? or real world events based? i.e annoucement of Euro2020 to go ahead, or Serie A to resume.

Aside from being confident on your picks, how else are you coping mentally seeing prices and your portfolio dropping at times like these.

The first question is about picking that right moment to be greedy. Is it price or events that is the trigger? I think it is a mix of both but I would prioritise real world events.

It won’t be as easy as waiting for Serie A to resume or Euro 2020 to be confirmed – that is the moment where everyone will know and you are just one of the mugs following in. If you are swift this can still work, but miss it by an hour… not so good.

Rather, a bit like real world trading, we’re going to have to pay attention to more than just football and follow Government announcements and news. We want to judge when it is likely that conditions are right where it will be possible for football authorities to give competitions the go ahead. That’s very different from the go ahead actually being given.

Of course, the go ahead may never be given and really we will then be thinking about whether it will have cleared up by next season.

Fortunately my background is working in Government so I speak the language and can interpret what they really mean by various statements quite well. That’s probably an advantage but it’s still going to be tricky.

On the second question on my own mental state. I think it’s hard for anyone and possibly the biggest test for traders I can remember in years on FI. I’m definitely not immune from worry and I think if anyone says they are I’d be sceptical.

Everyone will say don’t panic when a crisis is far away. But when a crisis comes everyone naturally wants to panic. Being able to control that can sort the really good traders from the bad ones.

I think a lot of this is in the setup. Not having more money in than you can afford to lose. Having carefully crafted your portfolio with players you are content with long term and are more likely to weather any storm.

These are the things that confidence can be built on. It’s like the cliché of fixing your roof whilst the sun is shining. If you’ve done that, you’ve got a chance of reasoning yourself out of a harmful freak out.

Once panic hits.. if you are caught out holding a portfolio full of worthless garbage that is reliant on specific events rather than long term real value… maybe you should panic! And it will be very difficult to stop yourself from doing so. 

13:59

Question: I’m generally happy with my current portfolio with good performance players for next season and nearly all have transfer rumours but I’m trimming a bit off all players as I currently only have a 5% cash balance. Do you think this a good idea because some players will sell at worse prices than others? Or should I just trim from players who have held up well?

This is called “salami slicing” where you trim a bit off the top of everything when you are trying to make cuts. I would say this is a bad idea. 

When trying to make cuts, some players will have better prospects than others.

Rather than trimming a bit off everything, good and bad, we should be using our knowledge of trends and performance strength to cut off the weakest parts. 

Since we’re discussing salami slicing I’m about to use a sausage metaphor, which is a first. Please bear with me.

Imagine that your portfolio is a sausage.

Some parts of the sausage are better than others. What we want to do is cut out the bits that have gone bad or will be going bad next. 

If we just chop 5% of the sausage off the end, we still have a sausage containing lots of bad bits. And we might have cut off a bit that was perfectly good. That’s not what we want.

Ideally, we want to chop off the bad bits so that we can reform our sausage with only choice cuts of the highest quality.

That is the end of the sausage metaphor, make of it what you will.

13:53

Question: There’s value everywhere in the market right now; With the information you have available to you, which group of quality players would you personally put your money into?

Our first optimist 🙂

I somewhat agree although might not use the word “everywhere”!

The trick with this is recognising when it is the right moment to get Greedy. Too soon and you catch that falling knife. Too late and you miss the bounce back.

As discussed this morning, I do not think it is time to be Greedy yet. I think it is a time for caution and mainly hoarding cash so that we can be amongst the first to get Smart Greedy when the moment is right. I don’t know when that moment will be it depends on events. Ideally just before most people see coronavirus settling down I suspect.

But, there are areas that are safer than others, and areas where I am content to leave my money. Performance strength gets more and less important at various times. It’s going to appear very unimportant when there are no games!

But it always matters. Always.

It’s like gravity. Eventually, performance strength will pull money back towards it even if we have to wait for the build up of next season. Given early buying in preparation, that might be as early as May. That’s 2 months.

But, it will likely take some time for many to see that.

If I had to invest money today I would hit up players that have zero dependance on short term fixtures because they don’t have any anyway.

Someone like Pedrinho, Trincao, Anton Miranchuk, Giorgian De Arrascaeta, Almada, Abulkadir Omur, Soares (most from the recent transfers article actually). They should be relatively fine simply because they have zero or very little reliance on the current crop of fixtures.

Same can be said of players like de Beek or Ziyech or Rodrigo De Paul for the most part.

13:39

Question: The goalposts have moved substantially now, should we now be reducing PB players bought for CL/Europa and Euro 2020 rather than transfer/media/next season, etc? And if so should we be instant selling or listing them to market? Players listed don’t really seem to be moving much just now.

Questions now coming in, thank you! Keep ’em coming.

Yes, as per advice here tightening up on CL/Europa/Euro 2020 and even current domestic performance strength as one of our reasons for holding is sensible, and has been for a while. Transfer/media feels like safer ground and the ideal scenario is where the player has both.

Instant Sell vs Listing to market. Well. Obviously the ideal is listing them. But. Good frickin’ luck shifting them right now. They are extremely unlikely to move unless you can see they are being pushed as a “safe haven” player but you disagree and want out.

Instant Sell is there to be used but particularly today with spreads increased it just got more expensive to the point of not being viable in many cases. For example, selling Bruno at £6.54 is bats. Or Werner for £3.93. 

Selling Alphonso Davies (I’m picking on the 3 biggest pence fallers here) for £2.36 is much less crazy because he was grotesquely overvalued vs his actual value as covered in Scouting. It might be a good move. But, it would have been a much better move a couple of days ago when you could have got a much bigger price.

In some cases, where we are convinced that player will just keep dropping and has no real reason to be bought again in a few months time an Instant Sell might still be sensible.

But overall, this underlines a point that once real bad news hits there are very few good options for us on the table. You can only effectively manage a crisis in advance.

13:13

This mornings post was written before La Liga and the CL/Europa was cancelled but it all remains relevant. I had expected further cancellations and the news felt like it was going to get worse before it got better.

No doubt the market is in a spin and we are starting to see that panic set in. 

As expected, spreads have been hiked severely making those Instant Sells very costly indeed. I support this 100%. FI just have to discourage mass panic sales, it’s not good for anyone at this stage.

Good traders will have already put themselves into a position where, in the main, they were content with what they had and haven’t overreached into players that were clearly at risk or were way above their rational price.

This is why I thought piling in after the announcement was a bad idea. It’s an example of Stupid Greedy rather than Smart Greedy.

Everyone is going to take some hits here and character and patience will be tested. 

If we’ve taken good steps as discussed here in recent weeks to prepare for this sort of thing, we just have to be little Fonzie’s and ride it out. Tactical trimming is still possible where we have really lost confidence in a player.

As per this morning’s post where I talked about a Panic mass sale strategy – if you are going to panic, panic nice and early. I think it is now too late. 

Like I said on Tuesday, post announcement when confidence was restored in the short term was our best chance to sell any players that made us sweat. We won’t be getting a better one for a while I suspect.

Our best play is for the players we are holding to be those who have real long term value through performance strength but also that off pitch reason to hold them as discussed in the article this morning and also on Tuesday.

State of the Market 12 March

As discussed in the Live Blog on Tuesday, I’ll do additional State of the Market posts during the current events as and when I have something new to say.

(Note, the news of La Liga being suspended came in AFTER I wrote the below so I don’t reference it. But, it just illustrates what I was discussing anyway). 

The Last Couple of Days

When I signed off the live blog Tuesday evening, we’d just had a massive announcement from FI which had soothed jangling nerves.

But, as I said at the end of the blog, whilst this boosted the mood of traders, the real football world is still in a spin and the bonus did nothing to change that.

We are now seeing a quick return towards pessisism and negativity. And it’s not unjustified – the football calendar is looking more shaky than ever.

I think the two key things that have changed since Tuesday are:

1) The clear irresponsibility of both players and fans at behind closed doors games (hugging, celebrating together, mass gatherings outside of stadiums i.e PSG fans). This makes it more difficult to argue the case for behind closed doors being safe. 

2) Players themselves getting coronavirus (Rugani) or being suspected of having it (Arsenal). If it starts getting into squads then it’s another argument for not finishing a season – everyone has to finish or nobody does.

Personally, I’m not expecting much good news anytime soon. I think we will only see more match cancellations, and possibly cancellations or postponements of whole competitions.

If there is a way for football authorities to keep these shows on the road they will find it, there is too much money involved not to. But we have to prepare for the event that it just won’t be possible.

Responses

In my mind, there are basically 4 “modes” we can be in at any one time:

– Panic

– Cautious

– Optimistic

– Greedy

Most of the time I hang out in Optimistic, with occasional moves into Cautious and Greedy as needed.

As per State of the Market in the last two weeks, I’ve been cautious. And I still am. Let’s look at all 4 of those approaches.

Panic

Panic involves a mass sale of all or very large parts of the portfolio. It works when you see a major problem coming up that will hit the market for a long time, causing months of drops without prospect of recovery anytime soon.

It has big upfront costs in spreads and commission. And a risk that you might get it wrong. If for example you did a mass panic sell before the announcement – you’ll likely have regretted it. 

As I said immediately after the announcement – if you wanted to sell, straight after the announcement was the best moment and you aren’t likely to get a better one.

And, if corona virus settles in the coming weeks and competitions trundle on behind closed doors, you’ll regret your mass sales.

A panic sell can be a great move though provided the circumstances are warranted and you panic sufficiently early. Most people don’t – they panic when they see heavy drops. This can be a bit like trying to dodge a bullet after you already got shot – it’s only likely to make the wound worse.

Cautious or Optimistic

Cautious is where we ease back on buying, make targetted cuts to our portfolio and store spare cash in the balance. This is where I’ve been in recent weeks as discussed here.

It works where we see short term risks but do not think they are long term game changers.

Optimistic is my most common mode, where we have most of our money invested along with the trends/performance strength of players, ideally with a small pot (5%?) in the balance ready to move for new opportunities. 

It works in “normal” times for FI where the market is pushing forward and there aren’t any major unusual events causing waves.

The risk with both of these approaches is that you are either too cautious or too optimistic, perhaps failing to lean towards panic enough, or alternatively, not being greedy enough when the market is struggling. 

Greedy

Greedy involves mass buying, best done after a period of panic or caution when people have been mass selling and have become over pessimistic. 

It’s a bit vulture like. But I don’t care I love it. Key Strategy has had it’s biggest wins when in Greedy mode – the Share Split last year when traders were over pessimistic on performance and chased too hard into premium media players, and pre-season where traders were over pessimistic on strong performance veterans.

You’ve got to be have strong reasons to be confident of things turning around in a matter of weeks and months.

And the risk is that you are Greedy too early. Traders often say “buy the dip”. But they also say “don’t catch a falling knife”.

It’s also possible you can see prices going back up (like after the announcement) but they come back down again. You can’t just follow the market. This is Stupid Greedy.

Smart Greedy is generally done as the market is falling but not too soon. And judging that moment is difficult.

My Thoughts

Recent news, with players getting infected now and stupid behaviour at behind closed doors games makes me more cautious.

I think tightening up on players that are very reliant on current fixtures is a smart move right now. I gave my thoughts on this on Tuesday:

I think players will generally hold up best where:

– They are involved in multiple competititons i.e domestic football may be suspended but they still have the CL and the Euros. If one competition is cancelled, others may go ahead.

– They have an off pitch reason to hold them and can take advantage of a potentially longer window for media – i.e an expected big transfer to either the EPL or major European club. In EPL, we can be looser on performance strength, at least for the initial build up. For moves to big foreign clubs we ideally want potential moves where the player is expected to do well for performance scoring at their rumoured destination. 

– We generally want players who are mostly youthful, at least under 27 and eligible for major international sides (English, Spanish, French, German, Italian, Brazilian, Dutch etc). “Sexy” links to clubs like Real etc. All these factors will help maintain long term interest even where short term interest is disrupted.

– Price is important. We don’t want too many players running way above Guide Prices unless their fit for the above 3 criteria is very strong.

Players at high prices that have been popular because of expected CL/Europa runs, or Euro 2020 involvement can be high risk right now, unless they are underpinned by a potential transfer link.

Even younger players, who rely on a big breakout performance sometime soon won’t be immune. If you look at a player like Aouchiche, he needed to play a game and put up a big score to push on. He is capable of doing so. But if there aren’t any fixtures, there is no particular reason to hold him for the coming months.

Curtis Jones? Not immune, hope he would get minutes for Liverpool if they wrap up the title is still there but potentially at risk. With his trend fit, he probably holds up better than most though. 

Generally, I think we are on strongest ground with players who have real FI performance quality, and potentially can continue very well if competitions do go ahead. But that performance strength alone is not enough – we generally want an off pitch reason, like a transfer, to support them too.

Cheaper players, with long term in mind, someone like Anton Miranchuk or De Arrascaeta are likely fine too – their value did not rest on current fixtures anyway.

And as a final safety measure – I would advise sticking with players you are happy to take into next season.

I am definitely in Cautious mode, and targetted trims to me seem best.

I do not think a Panic response is warranted. My original view that whilst potentially serious, this is not a permanent game changer is still my view. We may be looking at months rather than weeks before things return to normal, but they should return to normal.

The start of next season is not actually far away and people will want to prepare portfolios early, particularly if prices are cheap and corona virus is settling.

And, FI have shown competent management of the market so far and have said they are ready to step in to take additional measures if necessary which gives added confidence.

I am not yet near Greedy mode though. I think this is too soon and there are too many events that need to shake out first. 

I also do not think chasing into “safe haven” premium media players is smart. Too many people are doing it. These players are already getting overvalued, will probably get more so. And if some bad news hits you are stuck in there with huge spreads, the risk of lots of people panic selling, and nobody buying.

And in % terms, the gains are relatively small at premium prices.

Having 2-3 premiums is totally fine, but generally where you want them long term and think they are at a value price with room to grow.

This week for example, Kane was a much smarter choice than Sancho. The potential transfer gives him much more headroom to grow into. Now? Players who have spiked are always at risk but I think given the potential, and his longer term value it’s a better pick than many.

Overall, I would much rather have that money on the sidelines ready to be Greedy at the right moment and pick up true value players if they get oversold which is likely.

My personal approach will be: 

a) retain the players in which I have confidence, as described above (which is the vast majority of my portfolio – if I wasn’t, they wouldn’t be there).

b) make selected trims for players that cause me worry as discussed above.

c) retain spare cash in the balance from trimmed players, ready to clean up if the market gets too pessimistic on good players.

 

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