MEMBERS QUICK START GUIDE

WELCOME!

In a nutshell, the best way to think of your membership is like having an assistant manager.

Members run their own portfolio, but I will do a lot of the heavy lifting, taking much of the burden out of trawling through spreadsheets and analysing the market. (Or, take away the guilt of not doing that because you are too busy!).

Through weekly Scouting, I’ll let you know who the best value players are, who they aren’t, and when something important changes.

I’ll provide advice on strategy for the months ahead, covering each phase of the season and every major event. 

And I’ll cut through the often contradictory social media chatter, picking out the trends ahead that really matter.

I’ll also provide regular features on the best players in the CL, ineligible leagues, IPOs, FI suitable wonderkids and much more.

Below, I’ve given a quick summary of each section so you know how to make best use of the site, and when you can expect content updates!

KEY WEEKLY SCHEDULE

These are the key weekly updates to note. There is often much more, depending on what is happening in the week and what I think will be most useful to members.

  • Monday – Full Scouting Update covering all 5 leagues, usually by 7pm. 
  • Tuesday – State of the Market article
  • Thursday/Friday – A feature, Champions League/Europa/Euro 2020/FI suitable wonderkids etc
  • Sunday – Scouting highlights from Friday/Saturday, usually by 6pm.

REGULAR CONTENT

  • Key Strategy – In depth strategy guides for each phase of the season. Typically covers Summer, Early-Season, Winter, and Late Season.
  • Guide Pricing – Monthly analysis of price movements and what that tells us about trends and player value.
  • Transfers – Like any good Chairman, I like to wrap up transfer business early. Full updates of the transfers section will usually come in months approaching the window, giving members ample time to prepare their portfolios in advance.
  • Tournaments – Full coverage of the big tournaments like Euro 2020, with breakdowns of the best players. Detailed coverage during the tournament, identifying the best performers at both the elite and cheaper punt ends of the market.
  • Analysis of Major Events – Whenever a big announcement happens, like bonuses or performance scoring changes, check in for Live Blogs and detailed breakdowns, including which players will win or lose.

Player Scouting

On Sunday afternoon and all day Monday, you’ll find me updating the Scouting section, covering all of the weekend’s action from an FI perspective.

It gets updated live as I go, so you can check throughout the day if you like! But you can expect to see the full highlights of Friday/Saturday by around 7pm Sunday, and the full weekend update done by 6pm Monday.

I will often do midweek updates too if there is something important to highlight, or after big Champions League rounds etc.

I focus on the real match statistics, with access to stats beyond what is publicly available. I pay attention particularly to performance in the last 5-6 games. Unlike a lot of analysis you may see on social media, I do not over emphasise historic performance scores or old match data which can be very misleading.

You will know which players are really strong for performance scoring, and just as importantly, which ones aren’t.

This changes for individuals frequently, due to tactical changes, form, and fixtures, and I keep on top of it every week.

My goal is to condense the 16-20 hours of Scouting I do each weekend into a less than 20 minute read for members. 

In Scouting. I discuss the performance scoring strength of the players, but also their trading prospects overall. Performance strength is crucial but is not enough for success on it’s own.

I have a very strong record of identifying the players who will rise and the players who will drop. 

You can see the great results from pre-season 2019 to December 2019 here

One of the key points to note from these results is the importance of knowing who not to pick for your overall profits. That’s why I cover players objectively and fairly, and pull no punches when a player is showing clear weaknesses whether they are popular or not.

Scouting will save you time by highlighting the changes that matter. You won’t have to feel guilty about not looking at the stats of every game every week, I’m on the case.

I still recommend members do at least some of their own research on top, using my information to narrow down the field rather than make the decision for them.

It will highlight great opportunities where profits can be made or losses avoided. But I don’t promise instant results, although we often get some. 

My main focus is on making the best possible profits in the coming 1-3 month window.

Strategy and Market Analysis

The site always has a live Key Strategy.

This is crucial to understand and I put a lot of effort into it. It sets an overall direction for the months ahead.

Members can go back and review previous Key Strategies in the archive and see how my previous ones have turned out. 

The record is strong to date, from navigating the tricky share split period in early 2019, to nailing the timing of transfer trades in the Summer, to Early Season where we profited from extremely accurate predictions of which players would succeed in the new scoring system.

I was able to set out a path that was always a few steps ahead of the market and the often misleading social media chatter. 

That’s key for big profits.

We need to be out ahead of the market, not following it.

Social media is quite good at telling us what’s happening today. 

It tells us very little about where we need to be in the next month or two.

Of course, I won’t always get everything right. There may come a day when it doesn’t go to plan, but it won’t be for a lack of quality analysis and effort. And if so, you can bet I’ll be working out how to get back on track.

Every Tuesday, I publish a new State of the Market. This is a weekly analysis of the market and it’s opportunities and risks. 

If Key Strategy sets the big picture, State of the Market is where I steer the ship week to week.

I also run special articles and Live Blogs covering the big events. Seasons are defined by these, from bonuses, to share splits, to performance scoring changes and dividend increases.

I breakdown every single one, discussing what they mean and how to make the most of them.

PLAYER RATINGS

In Scouting, I often link to my 5 out of 5 stars player rating system. There is a Guide on this but as a quick primer:

3 out of 5 stars would be considered a good performance player, whilst they won’t win every week, you can expect competitive performance scores perhaps 4-7 times per season. 

4 out of 5 stars is very strong, and I do not give these out easily. A player will be showing consistently exceptional stats and might be expected to challenge 7-10 times a season for performance scoring.

5 out of 5 stars is elite, reserved for a handful of the absolute best performance players.

Anything less than 3 out of 5 stars, and big performance scores will likely be rare events.

I give seperate ratings for current and potential performance strength. Usually, a player with high potential but a low current rating will need a move to a bigger club, or at least a significant tactical switch to achieve that potential.

Player ratings are updated as I go through Scouting, with occasional big refreshes to cover the more obscure players.

GUIDE PRICES

How do you know how much a player might be worth if they start performing well?

How do you know when a player is overvalued and you should sell?

Complicated questions. And it depends on exactly how strong they are, and how far they meet the trends ahead as to what price they deserve.

To help, I produce Guide Prices on the Dashboard.

 

 

This is my judgement of the average price the market is prepared to pay for a performance suitable, on trend player.

I update these monthly, with an accompanying article analysing price movements and trends.

Under this price, the player can have room to grow if they perform well.

Over this price, you should start thinking about whether the player has risen as far as they will go. 

Very strong performance players with good trend fits, especially if they attract media, can have a good reason to be above these prices.

The important thing is that we have considered that, and we are happy with either the decision to hold out for a higher price, or are happy with the decision to take a profit.

TOP TIPS FOR SUCCESS

Members will have an advantage in knowing the real quality of performance players, and good insights into the trends ahead.

But the way that you manage your portfolio is also key to success. Two traders could pick exactly the same players, but end up with very different results if they carve up their portfolio differently!

I get sent a lot of portfolios on Twitter and where the holder is underwhelmed with the results, there are almost always two common themes.

Portfolio Balance

Making sure the portfolio has the right number of players for you to manage, and crucially, with the right amount of money allocated to each. 

A common approach is buying the same number of shares in each player. It can make you a fairly passive trader almost by accident. This can be fine if this is what you intended. But this way, your portfolio can be too top heavy, and your cheaper and potentially higher returning trades don’t have enough cash in them to get you paid when they do well.

When seeking more ambitious results, I therefore recommend having a target % of portfolio value allocated to each player instead. I have a guide on this here

Two steps forward, one step back 

Lots of people tend to make money on some trades but then take beatings on other players, ending up with limited progress.

This usually reflects a gambling mentality. Chasing hype, following the latest social media “must have”. Look at the pre-season results to see what happens to “must haves” after they have had their breakout moment.

Our primary objective is to maximise gains. We talk a lot about making profit. We don’t talk enough about minimising losses. It’s crucial. Not only did your loss making player lose you money, or spend 6 months stagnating, that was a lost opportunity to use that money productively.

If you ever wonder why some people have been making 200%+, and others struggle to beat the market at all, this is why.

This is why I share my Key Strategy and weekly State of the Market Updates with members. My objective here is to help us trade ahead of the market and be leading it, not following it.

One of the most important skills to have is to be able to see a player you don’t own flying, see everyone chattering about it on social media, and be able to leave it well alone and not let it bother you.

If someone won a gamble and is crowing about it, it probably means they lost a few others and didn’t tell anybody!

Our overall results will be the sum total of all our decisions, not just one trade.

See my public blog on the 18/19 season where I made a 220% profit in this portfolio. Picking the right players was very important. But equally, the reason for this great return is that it almost never took any losses. And when it did, they were very mild. 

In trading, not losing money is as important as making it.

Thanks for reading the Quick Start Guide! If you have any questions about the site or would like some general advice, please feel free to contact me at admin@footballindextrader.co.uk or via DM on Twitter.
Welcome to the site, and good luck with your trading!

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